Florida Severe Threat
The same front that produced severe weather in the Central U.S. earlier this week has now found itself along the East Coast. Residents in Florida may have to keep an eye on the forecast today for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms. The image below was from a University of Tampa webcam earlier today
Florida Severe Threat
The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, OK has issued a MARGINAL RISK of severe weather across the central and southern part of Florida. Damaging winds looks to be the main threat today.
…CENTRAL/S FL TODAY…
THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAVE MOVED SEWD TO NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE…WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS 5-8 F LOWER ACROSS
CENTRAL FL…TO THE N OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BAND. SOME
RECOVERY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TODAY SINCE SURFACE WINDS
ARE FROM THE S ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD
BREAKS TO ALLOW SURFACE HEATING. ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
ACROSS THE E/NE GULF TODAY…WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REACH THE
FL W COAST BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH LAPSE RATES
WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP…MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1000-1500
J/KG IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
National Weather Outlook
The elongated system will also have roots in parts of the Northeast with lingering snow showers through Saturday. Meanwhile, another system will slide out of the Pacific Northwest and bring a round or rain/snow mix to the Midwest PM Saturday/Sunday. Minor snow accumulations will be possible across the far north, while strong winds and slightly cooler temperatures will bring up the rear Sunday/Monday.
Snowfall Potential
Snow potential through PM Sunday looks fairly minimal across the northern tier of the nation. A few areas from the Midwest to the Great Lakes and Northeast may see a light slushy coating through PM Sunday. The nice thing about this time of the year is that whatever falls, typically doesn’t stick around too long due to warmer/more intense sunshine.
National Precipitation
According to NOAA’s HPC, the 5 day precipitation forecast shows at least a little something across much of the nation with the exception of the Southwest… Of course, the Southwest has been dealing with mostly dry and warm conditions for quite some time now. Drought conditions in parts of the Western U.S. remain in the Extreme to Exceptional category, so moisture is much needed!
High Amplitude Weather Pattern
Take a look at the temperature extremes across the nation. The Western U.S. is dealing with a large ridge of high pressure allowing mostly dry and warm conditions to persist, while the eastern U.S. is dealing with a large trough of low pressure allowing unsettled and much colder than average conditions to persist.
Highs From Average
It’s interesting to see how divided the nation will be today; it’ll be near -10° to -20° below average weather in the Eastern U.S. and near +10° to +20° above average weather in the Western U.S.! In fact, some of the Plains States will actually be split right down the middle!
Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week/weekend ahead! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX
