The view from the University of Oklahoma today looked pretty serene this morning, but could be an area of strong to severe weather by midweek. In fact, parts of Oklahoma may be under the gun today, tomorrow and Wednesday as a developing storm system rolls out of the Pacific Northwest.
See the latest view from the University of Oklahoma HERE:
National Weather Outlook
The loop below shows our next developing storm system rolling out of the Pacific Northwest. As the storm slides east, showers/storms and snow will be possible. This is a pretty typical storm for the month of March… something that we haven’t seen much of this year.
Monday Severe Threat
…CNTRL PLNS LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT…
CURRENT SFC AND 925-850 MB DATA SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SPARSE /PW AOB 0.75 INCH/ OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS TODAY E OF
STRENGTHENING HI PLNS LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE…AND INVOF STALLING
FRONT. LOW- TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL…HOWEVER…BE QUITE STEEP
GIVEN PERSISTENT WSWLY 700 MB FLOW OFF THE SRN RCKYS/PLATEAU.
LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE…ESPECIALLY NEAR TRIPLE
POINT OVER THE ERN OK PANHANDLE AND SW KS…ALONG WITH
FAVORABLY-TIMED ARRIVAL OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE…SUGGEST A CONDITIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD LATE DAY/EARLY EVE STORMS AS EML CIN IS
BREACHED. WITH AMPLE SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS…SOME RISK WILL
EXIST FOR SVR HAIL. STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE LATER IN THE EVE
THROUGH EARLY TUE FARTHER NE ACROSS NRN AND ERN KS…WHERE LOW-LVL
WAA WILL STRENGTHEN ATOP DEVELOPING WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO
INTENSIFYING /50 KT/ SWLY LLJ. WHILE SPARSE MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
LIMIT THREAT…COMBINATION OF STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND
APPRECIABLE /40+ KT/ CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR COULD POSE A RISK FOR A FEW
STORMS WITH SVR HAIL.
Tuesday Severe Threat
…MO TO NORTHEAST TX…
STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS BY 24/18Z. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING WITH MARKED DIFLUENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW
AND FOCUSED ASCENT EXPECTED NORTH OF WARM FRONT. SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL BE NOTED WITHIN THE STRONGLY FORCED AIR
MASS FROM NEB INTO IA/NRN IL. HOWEVER…INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVE
INSUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COOL
SECTOR. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE GRADUALLY MOISTENING WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/DRY LINE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS EARLIER
MODELS WITH 50S SFC DEW POINTS ADVANCING NEWD INTO MO…SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WITH PERHAPS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 60F DEW POINTS EXPECTED
OVER ERN OK BY 25/00Z. STRONG CAPPING AND VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD DELAY CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE PLAINS…BUT TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM WRN MO…SWWD ACROSS ERN
OK BETWEEN 22-23Z. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR FAVORS DISCRETE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50KT. IT/S
NOT CLEAR HOW FAR SW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BUT THERE IS SOME
CHANCE TSTMS EVOLVE OVER EXTREME NE TX DURING THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DRY LINE STALLS ACROSS THIS REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS…ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING AS
THEY ENCOUNTER LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER SERN MO/ERN AR AND
DUE TO THE LLJ/FORCING SHIFTING WELL NORTH OF THIS REGION ACROSS NRN
Wednesday Severe Threat
…SRN PLAINS TO LOWER OH VALLEY…
SECONDARY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH…WITHIN NWLY FLOW…WILL DIG ACROSS THE
CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM WRN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
BY 26/00Z. WITH TIME…FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF
THIS FEATURE AND UPPER TROUGH SHOULD MIGRATE EAST TOWARD THE MS
VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DIGGING SHORT WAVE…SFC HIGH WILL
BUILD SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH
OF KS INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE BY PEAK HEATING.
AT THE SFC…IT APPEARS A WEAK LEE CYCLONE WILL EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE
SURGING COLD FRONT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE…THEN SHIFT INTO EXTREME
SWRN OK JUST PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS STRONG HEATING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS…EXTENDING NEWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO CNTRL OK. SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN
TX WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT ACROSS
OK INTO SWRN MO. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION
WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 21-00Z WITHIN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS. WHILE DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE…ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE
CYCLE…IT APPEARS FRONTAL FORCING COULD LEAD TO AN ELONGATED BAND
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LESS
CERTAINTY EXISTS ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS NWRN TX. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER…THOUGH STRONGLY SHEARED STORMS SHOULD EXHIBIT SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS. LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH CONVECTION ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INTO SRN IL/IND DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS…AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER AS THE COLD FRONT
DRIVES DEEP INTO TX.
Lack of Severe Weather
To date, the number of severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings across the country only add up to 173! This is the lowest number of severe warnings issued within the data listed below. The average number of warnings issued from 2003-2014 through March 23rd is ~1,636. Needless to say, this has been an extremely quiet start to the severe weather season.
Lack of Tornadoes
The image below shows our PRELIMINARY tornado count through March 22nd across the country. Note that so far this year, we’ve only had 28! The 2005-2014 average through March 22nd is 186!
Days Since Last Tornado Warning by NWS Office
This is an interesting image. It shows the number of days we’ve had since our last tornado warning by specific NWS offices. Note that it’s been nearly 100 to 200+ days since our last tornado warning across some of the areas that typically are a little more active at this time of the year.
Average Tornadoes for March
Interestingly, there has yet to be a tornado this March across the country. If we can make it to tomorrow, we will set a record for the latest first March tornado! The current record for latest first March tornado is March 23rd, 1969. The average number of tornadoes by state for March is listed below.
Days Since Last Severe Thunderstorm Warning by NWS Office
Last week was some of the first severe weather we’ve since late last year across parts of New Mexico and the Deep South. Note that there are a few NWS office areas that are in single digits below, while most other locations haven’t seen a severe thunderstorm warning in nearly 100 to 200 days!
Thanks for checking in and have a great week ahead! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX