Happy Tuesday! We’re watching the potential of another busy week across the country, with severe threats through Saturday and much needed western snow. That snow will come over the next couple days, as you can see in the forecast loop above. Meanwhile, rounds of storms (possibly severe) are likely in the Plains and Ohio Valley in areas that don’t need any more rain. You can see some of those rounds above as well.
[TRACK THE STORMS: Interactive Radar]
Today we are watching a potential of severe weather (marginal risk in dark green) over parts of northern and central California, as well as parts of the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. The main threat today in California will be hail – meanwhile, further east, the main threats would be large hail and damaging winds. A chance of a tornado does exists, however, over parts of southeast Kansas.
The chances of severe weather starts to ramp up on Wednesday, with a slight risk of severe weather (yellow) from Oklahoma up into parts of Iowa and Illinois. Meanwhile, a marginal risk of severe weather exists from the Texas/Mexico border up into southern Minnesota and Wisconsin, and as far east as the Kentucky/West Virginia border as a large upper trough moves out of the Inter-Mountain West and into the High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible.
The severe threat continues to increase on Thursday, where an enhanced risk of severe weather exists over much of Illinois and into Missouri. A slight risk area surrounds that from southern Wisconsin and Michigan down through Texas. We will be watching for large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes as well on Thursday as we expect some supercell storms to exist at least early on in the storm initiation. There is the concern of left over clouds and storms from the previous night in the morning hours – that might help adjust where severe weather is possible in the afternoon.
The system continues east on Friday, and there is at least a 15% chance of severe weather (denoted by the blue circled area) from near the New York City area down into Georgia. It would appear hail and winds would be the main threat.
On Saturday, we’ll watch a chance of severe weather across parts of western and central Texas as gulf moisture surges into Texas. Storms will be possible later in the day, some of which could be severe.
Besides severe weather, heavy rains will also be front and center over the next few days in some areas that have already seen way too much over the past month or so. Last Thursday and Friday, Louisville, KY picked up 6.81″ of rain – 5.64″ of that on Friday alone. Both days set records in the Louisville area. Unfortunately, more rain is in their forecast, with thunderstorms possible each day through Friday. Heavy rain will be possible from Texas all the way into the Ohio Valley and Northeast.
Here is a map of three hour flash flood guidance. This indicates how much rain on average could fall before flash flooding would occur based on current soil moisture content. Numerous areas in the Ohio Valley fall into only needing 1-3″ in a three hour period for flash flooding to occur. Many of these areas would only need 1-2″ of rain in an hour for it to happen.
Heavy rains that exceed flash flood guidance are possible from Missouri into West Virginia on Wednesday.
Flooding rains will be possible Thursday from Indianapolis through Memphis into Shreveport.
Western Rain and Snow
Meanwhile, some much needed snow is coming to the Sierras and the western United States, where a couple feet are possible over the next few days. This is coming after the news that the Sierra Nevada snowpack is only sitting at 5% of its historical water content for the beginning of April. So while the coming snow will be helpful… they need a lot more to make up the ever increasing deficit they’ve seen over the past few years.
Have a great Tuesday – and a great rest of the week!