Tuesday, March 24th
March is no stranger to severe weather and tornadoes, but this year has been a bit different. The lack of severe weather has actually been quite staggering. In fact, we have set a new record for the latest 1st tornado in March since 1950. The image below shows the number of severe weather reports we’ve seen across the nation so far this month (through March 17th).
Severe Threat Tuesday
Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the Central U.S. with the biggest threat being hail and high winds, however an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.
…E CNTRL PLNS TO LWR OH VLY TODAY/TNGT…
WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIALLY
STRONG SUPERCELLS LATER TODAY INTO TNGT…ESPECIALLY FROM NE OK/NW
AR NEWD INTO THE MO OZARKS…WHERE POTENT 60+ KT WLY 500 MB JET
STREAK OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE WILL OVERSPREAD 40+ KT SSWLY LOW-LVL
FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME…BROAD/DEEP EML SPREADING E WITH THE UPR
IMPULSE WILL MAINTAIN NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS REGION. CURRENT SFC…GPS…AND SATELLITE
DATA…HOWEVER…SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED
THROUGH THE PERIOD…ESPECIALLY IN MO…WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD
REMAIN AOB 55F.
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE…POTENT COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING WITH
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES…STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN EXIT REGION
OF MID-LVL JET…AND LOW-LVL UPLIFT SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN NEAR SFC LOW IN WRN/CNTRL MO …SWWD
ALONG TRAILING SFC TROUGH THROUGH SE KS INTO NE OK. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR A BIT LATER THIS EVE SWD ALONG TROUGH TO NEAR
THE RED RVR.
ALTHOUGH MOIST AXIS WILL BE RELATIVELY NARROW IN MO…A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL…LOCALLY DMGG WIND…AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. SOMEWHAT
WIDER MOIST AXIS /WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S-LWR 60S F/ AND
SLOWER STORM MOTIONS COULD OFFSET WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT TO YIELD
SIMILAR SVR THREATS INTO THE NGT SWD ACROSS NW AR AND ERN OK.
RAPID ENE MOVEMENT OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE WILL OUTPACE LOW-LVL MOISTURE
RETURN IN THE LWR OH VLY…ESPECIALLY ONCE ANVIL PRECIP FROM MO
STORMS…AND THAT FROM ANY ELEVATED WAA CONVECTION FARTHER
E…SPREADS DOWNSHEAR INTO COOL/DRY LOW-LVL AIR NOW PRESENT OVER
REGION. BUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPR IMPULSE…AND TIGHTENING LOW-LVL
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY MENTIONED…A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ISOLD
SVR GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH ANY SFC OR NEAR SFC-BASED STORMS THAT DO
PERSIST EWD ACROSS IL AND IND.
Tuesday Hail Threat
While damaging winds and an isolated tornado threat may be possible today, large hail appears to be the main concerns in the red colored area below.
Severe Threat Wednesday
…SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY…
STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE…SECONDARY
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN RESPONSE…SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE PLAINS FORCING A STRONG POLAR FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF KS INTO THE
NRN TX PANHANDLE BY 25/18Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SURGE TO A POSITION
NEAR THE I-44 CORRIDOR ACROSS OK/MO BY EARLY EVENING.
LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST 60F SFC
DEW POINTS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. OBSERVATIONAL DATA LATE THIS EVENING SEEMS SUPPORTIVE
OF THIS SCENARIO AS 60F DEW POINTS HAVE ALREADY ADVANCED INLAND TO
NEAR THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. THIS AIR MASS SHOULD EASILY LIFT NWD
INTO OK AHEAD OF DRY LINE/COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY…STRONG HEATING
IS EXPECTED ACROSS NWRN TX INTO CNTRL OK WHERE SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES
WILL RANGE FROM 8-9C/KM. WITH COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES…ROUGHLY
MINUS 18C AT 500MB…AND SFC TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS SWRN OK…MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ROBUST
UPDRAFTS. LATEST THINKING IS CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR
AROUND 22-23Z AS CAP ERODES JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. INITIAL STORMS
MAY BE DISCRETE…ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DRY LINE AHEAD OF WEAK SFC
LOW. HOWEVER…FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD QUICKLY ENCOURAGE AN
ORGANIZED BAND OF SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR THAT
WILL PROPAGATE SEWD. HAIL…POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES…WILL
BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD
BE NOTED WITH STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY
EXTEND NEWD ALONG THE POLAR FRONT ACROSS SRN MO…PERHAPS SPREADING
INTO SRN IL IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN RETURN TO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
National Weather Outlook
This is a fairly typical storm system for March/Spring. Strong to severe thunderstorms on the warmer, more unstable side, while snow will be possible on it’s colder, northern side.
Snow Potential
The image below shows snow potential through PM Thursday. Note that heavier snow will be possible across the higher elevations of the central and northern Rockies, while another round of sloppy snow accumulations will be possible across the Upper Midwest.
Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX
