The IR satellite loop from earlier today showed a developing tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. While this storm doesn’t look to become a very intense storm, heavy rain and flooding across parts of the nation will be a significant threat!

6.15.15 Invest

6.15.15 invest vis

As the storm lifts north towards the Gulf Coast, it will be steered by an area of high pressure located in the southeastern part of the U.S.. The storm track looks to lift north into the Middle Mississippi Valley before taking a hard right into the Ohio Valley by the second half of the week.

6.15.15 sfc map

6.15.15 WPC

Several models agree with this particular track as the area of high pressure in the southeastern parts of the U.S. holds firmly in place.

6.15.15 invest track

According to NOAA’s HPC, the 3 day rainfall forecast suggests several inches of rain across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri through AM Thursday

6.15.15 SC HPC 3 day

Note how the heavy precipitation potential looks to arc northeast into the Ohio Valley. This is follow the path around the high pressure in the southeast U.S..

6.15.15 NAT HPC 3 day

Here’s the 5 day precipitation forecast, which shows even more rain for some of the same areas.

6.15.15 NAT HPC 5 day

Thanks for checking in and have a great week ahead! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

Todd Outside