National Overview
Taking a look nationwide, we’ll be watching the threat of some severe storms over the next few days across the central and southern Plains into the southeast, as well as the potential of flooding rains. Frost and freeze concerns are likely tonight in parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic as lows dip into the 20s and 30s. Meanwhile, a storm system will be pushing onshore the west coast the next few days, bringing the chance of rain and snow for parts of California into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
Severe Weather
Today the severe threat exists from the High Plains to the Gulf Coast, as well as in southeastern Florida. The better chances of seeing any severe will be where the slight risk (yellow shaded areas) exists, in parts of the central High Plains, over southern Mississippi and Louisiana, and in central Texas. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out, particularly over Texas.
[CITIES IN THE THREAT: Austin – Houston – New Orleans]
We’ll watch the severe threat increase a little bit heading into Friday. We’re watching a couple enhanced areas (in orange) for severe weather Friday, one over eastern Kansas and western Missouri, and another from central Texas into southern Arkansas. While storms will be ongoing in the morning, we will watch for redeveloping storms heading into the afternoon, particularly in those highlighted areas. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible – but a lot of it depends on what the morning storms do to the atmosphere and how fast it can recover.
[CITIES IN THE THREAT: Dallas – Little Rock – Kansas City]
Our system continues to move east as we head into Saturday, and so will the severe threat. A slight risk of severe weather exists over parts of the Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys as well as the eastern Gulf Coast states and into South Carolina. While storms will likely be ongoing in the morning, we’ll once again see redevloping storms in the afternoon and evening hours. Threats on Saturday will once again include large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.
[CITIES IN THE THREAT: Memphis – Atlanta – Mobile]
MORE Flooding Rains
Besides severe weather, we’re also looking at more rain for portions of the south and southeast heading though the next few days, with pockets of 3″+ possible over the next seven days.
Rain past 14 days. Image: NWS
Some of these locations have already seen over 6″ of rain over the past fourteen days, making it for some one of the wettest Aprils on record!
On Friday, the best area of seeing heavy rain that could lead to flooding will be from the Texarkana region through central Mississippi and Alabama.
Saturday, the flooding rains risk moves east and includes parts of Georgia and South Carolina.
Frosty Mornings
Another frosty morning is expected Friday morning, this time across portions of the Ohio Valley, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, where temperatures are expected to drop into the 20s and 30s.
[MAPS: Forecast Lows]
Advisories in place for Friday Morning as of 9:45 AM ET Thursday.
Numerous frost advisories as well as freeze watches and warnings are already in place as of late Thursday morning for tonight into Friday morning due to the cold temperatures expected. Make sure to bring in or cover your vegetation if you already have it outside.
[MAP: Latest Watches, Warnings, and Advisories]
Have a great Thursday! Remember you can always find me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) or on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).
Meteorologist D.J. Kayser