Moderate Risk for Severe Weather Today and Tomorrow

Happy Friday! We have lots of weather to talk about heading into this weekend. From severe storms to potential tropical trouble to frost, the U.S. will see it all over the next few days. Let’s take a look at some of the biggest national weather stories through the next 3 days.

There is a significant risk for severe weather across the Plains both today and tomorrow. The SPC has issued a moderate risk for severe weather (red shaded area) for parts of Oklahoma and extreme north Texas today. The moderate risk for strong weather expands tomorrow to include portions of western Kansas. The main threat today is large hail, but gusty winds and a few isolated tornadoes are possible. On Saturday, very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible with storms pushing across the Plains.

Over 48 million people are at risk of seeing severe weather on Friday, while just over 43.5 million could be impacted by strong storms on Saturday.
Some of the larger population areas with the greatest threat for severe storms today and tomorrow include:
Dodge City, KS: 28,159
Wichita Falls, TX: 104,898
Wichita, KS: 386,552
Tulsa, OK: 398,121
Oklahoma City, OK: 610,613

A very slow moving trough in the Four Corners region has been responsible for the unsettled weather across the Plains this week. Record breaking rainfall has already fallen in many places and even more impressive precipitation amounts are in the forecast. Flooding concerns continue to grow across parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas as another 2-4″ of rain is possible through this weekend.

Heading towards the Atlantic, things will stay generally quiet across much of the Northeast and Southeast. Rain is likely, heavy at times, across the Carolinas over the next few days as Ana slowly works its way towards the coast. 1-2″ of rain are possible for coastal areas of North and South Carolina through Tuesday.

Here’s a look at the “spaghetti plots” or different model tracks for Ana. Most models are in agreement that the storm will take a westerly track and eventually move towards the coast of South Carolina sometime within the next few days.

Landfall could potentially occur sometime on Sunday afternoon. The official National Hurricane Center track (black dotted line) puts the landfall south of Myrtle Beach and north of Charleston.

A strong, late season winter storm is expected to bring significant snow to parts of the Central Rockies over the next few days. The first round of light snow will begin today and last through tomorrow morning. The heavier, more substantial snow will fall Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon. Generally 6-12″ of fresh powder are expected, but many higher elevations could see closer to 2 feet! Even though precipitation will start as rain in Rapid City, SD, it is expected to change over to snow Saturday night and pile up throughout Sunday. Some spots in western South Dakota could get between 1-2 feet of snow. Northerly winds gusting at times near 45 mph will create blowing snow and could cause visibility issues.

This mountain snow is accompanied by a rather unseasonable blast of cold air. Patchy frost is likely across parts of North Dakota tonight as temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s.
Elsewhere across the country, many are enjoying above average temperatures! Afternoon highs will trend about 10-15° above average for parts of the Ohio and Tennessee river valleys through this weekend.

Boston will enjoy lots of sunshine this weekend. Temperatures will be in the 70s today and tomorrow, but low 80s are expected on Sunday.

After enjoying a nice stretch of above average temperatures, Minneapolis will see temps dip below average for the beginning of next week. After upper 60s on Saturday, temperatures will take a nose dive Sunday as a cold front pushes across Minnesota. The first half of the work week will be a bit on the cool side with highs only reaching the 50s.