“Connecting the Dots” April 2025

Windiest Start to Spring in Nearly 50 Years. Ben Noll reports on the unusually windy conditions in March and early April at The Washington Post: “…Data shows it has been the windiest start to spring in nearly 50 years — or since 1977 — according to wind anemometers (the term for a device that measures wind speed and direction) and other atmospheric data. It was the second windiest March on record across the contiguous United States overall, since the records used in this analysis began in 1940. Michigan had its windiest March on record. Nine other states had their second windiest, and another had its third windiest…”

Major Climate Pattern Shifts Ahead of Hurricane Season, Bringing New Risks. We are rapidly transitioning from La Nina (cooling) to an ENSO-neutral pattern in the Pacific (neither abnormally cool or warm) and that has weather implications, especially for Atlantic and Gulf hurricanes. Here’s an excerpt from USA TODAY: “…Typically, ENSO-neutral is favorable for Atlantic hurricanes, like La Niña, because of lower wind shear over the Atlantic, meteorologist Andy Hazelton told USA TODAY. “Sometimes, if it’s ‘warm neutral’ (warmer than usual in the equatorial Pacific but not quite warm enough to officially classify as El Niño), it can lower activity a little bit…”

Brace for Active Atlantic Hurricane Season, CSU Forecast Says. No rest for the weary in Hurricane Alley this year, according to meteorologists at Colorado State University. USA TODAY has details: “Get ready for another active Atlantic hurricane season, with as many as 17 storms expected, experts from Colorado State University said in their initial forecast released Thursday morning. Of those 17 storms, researchers forecast that nine will become hurricanes. A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, with seven of them spinning into hurricanes, based on weather records that date from 1991 to 2020. Last year, 18 storms formed, including devastating Hurricanes Helene and Milton. The expected busy season is due to the presence of unusually warm water in the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes form, along with the predicted absence of an El Niño, which can inhibit hurricane formation...”

Hurricane Expert Philip Klotzbach on Why He Expects More Storms in 2025. Here’s a link to Dr. Klotzbach’s YouTube video explaining why this may be another above average hurricane season for the United States.

Scientists Predict a Brutal Hurricane Season While Trump Takes Aim at NOAA’s Budget. Here’s an excerpt from a post at Grist: “…The seasonal forecasts coming out now help to raise awareness in hurricane hotspots like the Gulf Coast, said Xubin Zeng, director of the Climate Dynamics and Hydrometeorology Center at the University of Arizona. But as the start of hurricane season approaches on June 1 and NOAA loses staff, researchers are worried that their shorter-term forecasts — the ones that alert the public to immediate dangers — could suffer, a result that would endanger American lives. “Now we are nervous if those data will be provided — and will be provided on time — from NOAA,” Zeng said. “We are thinking about what kind of backup plans we need to have for our early-June prediction...”

2025 Hurricane Season Outlook: Above-Average Landfall Threat, but Not Quite 2024. The Weather Channel weighs in on the upcoming hurricane season: “The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season may not be as active as last year, but the threat of U.S. landfalls remains higher than average, according to a just-released outlook issued by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.

The forecast figures: We expect 19 storms to form in 2025, nine of which will become hurricanes and four of which will reach Category 3 status or stronger, according to the outlook released Thursday.

That’s above the 30-year average tally for both hurricanes and storms. It’s just a couple of hurricanes shy of 2024’s total of 11 hurricanes…”

Experts Predict 12-15 Named Storms This Hurricane Season. Another hurricane prediction from NC State University; here’s an excerpt: “The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will see 12 to 15 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin, according to researchers at North Carolina State University. The Atlantic basin includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. The number of named storms predicted is in line with recent averages, according to Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State. The long-term (1951 to 2023) average of named storms is 11, and the more recent average (1994 to 2024) is 15 named storms. Of the predicted 12 to 15 named storms, six to eight may grow strong enough to become hurricanes (the historical average is six), with the possibility of two to three storms becoming major hurricanes...”

National Weather Service Gaps Will Leave Gaps as Storm Season Ramps Up. The Washington Post (paywall) has details: “…The losses will be widespread across the agency, which faced a growing number of impending retirements even before this year’s departures began. Eight of the Weather Service’s 122 local forecast offices soon will have seven or fewer meteorologists to do the work of 12 to 15 people, Weather Service Director Ken Graham told his colleagues in a briefing this week, according to two people familiar with his comments. Some meteorologists and public officials warned that these reductions, which leave the agency nearly 20 percent smaller than it was when President Donald Trump took office, could have deadly consequences when storms next strike. As forecast offices grapple with the changes, a memo obtained by The Washington Post also details ways they should cut back on certain services, including weather balloon launches...”

Extreme Floods are Happening Way More Often Than Federal Data Would Suggest, Analysis Shows. CNN.com has details on how the flood threat is evolving; many Americans don’t even realize they now live in a high-risk flood zone. Here’s an excerpt: “A critical federal analysis of extreme rainfall is vastly underestimating the chances of flood events, with grave implications for everything from new roads and bridges to the rising cost of flood insurance, according to a new analysis. Intense rain events, like atmospheric rivers and torrential, training thunderstorms, are quickly making the idea of a “1-in-100-year flood event” obsolete, according to the report from First Street Foundation, a non-profit focused on weather risk research. It found half the American population lives in a county where a 1-in-100-year flood is at least twice as likely now as it had been in the past, coming once every 50 years, on average, rather than 100…”

America’s Climate Anxiety, Mapped. The US experiences more extreme weather than any nation on Earth, and people are noticing that these extremes are trending more extreme over time. Axios has the post; here’s a clip: “Climate anxiety is concentrated in big U.S. metros and some coastal communities, recent estimates find.

Why it matters: The findings paint a stark picture of how attitudes toward climate change vary nationwide.

Driving the news: About 63.3% of U.S. adults overall are “somewhat” or “very” worried about global warming as of 2024, per Yale Program on Climate Change Communication estimates based on survey data.

• Yet attitudes vary widely by location, with comparatively low shares of adults expressing such concerns in many counties…”

Two Key Ingredients Cause Extreme Storms with Destructive Flooding. Why These Downpours are Happening More Often. An estimated 1800 square miles of the Ohio River Valley experienced another 1-in-1000 year flood in early April. The Conversation explains why these “mega-floods” are happening with greater frequency: “…The warm conditions before the April storm system reduced the temperature difference between these cold and warm air masses, greatly reducing the speed of the frontal movement and allowing it to stall over states from Texas to Ohio. The result was prolonged precipitation and repeated storms. The warm temperatures also led to high moisture content in the air masses, leading to more precipitation. In addition, strong wind shear led to a continuous supply of moisture into the storm systems, causing strong thunderstorms and dozens of tornadoes to form...”

Nearly Half of National Weather Service Have 20% Vacancy Rates, and Experts Say it’s a Risk. The Associated Press reports on the major cuts at NOAA: “…After Trump administration job cuts, nearly half of National Weather Service forecast offices have 20% vacancy rates — twice that of just a decade ago — as severe weather chugs across the nation’s heartland, according to data obtained by The Associated Press. Detailed vacancy data for all 122 weather field offices show eight offices are missing more than 35% of their staff — including those in Arkansas where tornadoes and torrential rain hit this week — according to statistics crowd-sourced by more than a dozen National Weather Service employees. Experts said vacancy rates of 20% or higher amount to critical understaffing, and 55 of the 122 sites reach that level…”

Why the Megarich Insist on Buying Homes in Extreme Weather Zones. The Wall Street Journal (paywall) explains: “It is no surprise to anyone that the weather is making huge swaths of the U.S. increasingly inhospitable. Even places that were long considered safe zones, such as Vermont, which saw catastrophic flooding from Hurricane Beryl in 2024, are seeing more frequent and more ferocious natural disasters such as fires, floods, hurricanes, heat waves, droughts and landslides. Homeowners in these areas are wrestling with what to do; stay and learn to live with this Sword of Damocles and its commensurate inconveniences, damage and skyrocketing home-insurance costs; or move somewhere that doesn’t threaten destruction on the regular—an expensive, gut-wrenching option, especially for longtime and multigenerational homeowners and lower- or fixed-income residents…”

Climate Change is Real, 75% of Americans Say, and Nearly Two-Thirds are Worried About it’s Effects. Equities.com has the post; here’s the intro: “Seventy-five percent of Americans believe climate change is happening, and 63% of the country is worried about the effects. But only 38% in the U.S. believe that climate change is caused mostly by human activities. Those are three of the data points that are now accessible in a new online tool developed by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication using responses to its International Public Opinion on Climate Change survey. The Global Factsheets tool, provides information about people’s climate change knowledge, beliefs, attitudes, policy preferences, and behaviors in 187 countries and territories worldwide…”

Stand up for NOAA Research. The Time to Act is Now. Here is an excerpt of a post from the American Meteorological Society and the National Weather Association: …”To envision the disastrous impact of this plan, one only needs to see what NOAA research has provided to the U.S. taxpayer and imagine where we would be without it. For example, the work of NOAA Research Labs and Cooperative Institutes:

• Sparked and developed our national Doppler radar network. NOAA research proved that Doppler weather radars are critical for severe thunderstorm warnings. This research led directly to the creation of the national Doppler weather radar network, which provides the radar observations you see on television and on your phone, and which meteorologists use to keep you safe during hazardous and severe weather. The next generation of weather radar is now being developed in the same laboratories.
• Feeds National Weather Service forecasts. NOAA research created and continuously improves the two computer weather models used by the National Weather Service to generate hourly and daily weather forecasts. One model focuses on predicting severe weather and is used extensively by the transportation and energy sectors. Another model predicts global weather patterns across the world for the 3- to 14-day range, with forecast outlooks used by farmers, ranchers, and water managers.
• Helps us respond to hurricanes. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that fly into Atlantic Ocean hurricanes collect essential observations to improve forecasts of hurricane landfall location and intensity, leading to better evacuation decisions and emergency response. This directly impacts public safety during extreme weather events...”