National Weather Forecast

On Monday, a couple of systems out in the western United States will bring the threat of rain and higher-elevation snow along with it. A system in the Southern Plains will bring showers and storms to the central/southern Plains and into the Tennessee River Valley as a cold front extends eastward from it.

The big precipitation story to begin the week will be heavy mountain snow out west with feet possible for some. That includes the Sierras, where up to 6 feet could fall in some areas.

Meanwhile, even though it’s early November, we still have to keep an eye on the tropics. And unfortunately, some sort of system could impact portions of Florida/the Southeast as we head through the upcoming week. Rain squalls and stronger winds are expected as we head toward the middle of the week in these areas whether or not a tropical/subtropical system forms. The National Hurricane Center does say that tropical storm/hurricane/storm surge watches will be possible by Monday in the Bahamas and along the Florida coast. We’ll keep an eye on it!

  • One interesting stat from the Michael Lowry substack newsletter “Eye on the Tropics”: “Since 1980, six tropical cyclones – four tropical storms and two tropical depressions – have struck the Florida peninsula in November, all initially from the south or west, and none with maximum sustained winds over 65 mph. Only one hurricane on record has struck the Florida peninsula in November, the so-called 1935 Yankee Hurricane, which made landfall near present-day Bal Harbor on November 4th with 100 mph sustained winds.”


Colorado River conditions are worsening quicker than expected. Feds prepare to step in.

More from the Denver Post: “Running out of time and options to save water along the drying Colorado River, federal officials said they’re considering whether to release less water from the country’s two largest reservoirs downstream to Arizona, California and Nevada. Without enough snow this winter, the water level at Lake Powell — the country’s second-largest reservoir — will drop below a critical level by next November, according to a new report from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Below that point, the Glen Canyon Dam will no longer be able to generate electricity and experts worry whether conditions will worsen to the point that the structure will no longer be able to send water downstream at all. Conditions on the Colorado River are worsening quicker than expected. The seven states in the river basin made little progress saving water over the summer and Colorado is heading into its third La Niña winter in a row, likely indicating below-average snowpack. A worst-case scenario, once considered only as a hypothetical, now presents a very real threat.

COP27 climate summit: what scientists are watching

More from Nature: “It’s been a year since global leaders renewed their climate pledges at the landmark summit in Glasgow, UK. Next week, they’ll convene again in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, during the 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP27) to carry on negotiations aimed at reining in global warming. But the world is a different place now: leaders will need to confront the energy crisis spurred by the war in Ukraine, and mounting damages from extreme weather events. The short-term outlook is daunting. Energy prices are skyrocketing in Europe and beyond, spurring a new round of government investments aimed at artificially reducing the cost of fossil fuels. By one estimate, such subsidies nearly doubled in 2021 and are poised to jump again this year, which will only increase dependence on the world’s dirtiest sources of energy.

Toyota among the ‘2022 world’s most obstructive companies on climate policy’ with oil giants

More from Electrek: “Toyota can’t seem to get out of its own way lately. The Japanese automaker ranked among the “world’s most obstructive companies on climate policy” of 2022, with oil giants like Exxon Mobile, Chevron, and leading Russian oil companies. “Change is the law of life. And for those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.” former US President John F. Kennedy once said. The automobile industry and world are moving forward with or without Toyota. The world’s largest automaker denies the growing demand for zero-emission electric vehicles. Toyota, a first mover in hybrid vehicles, is one of the few automakers still claiming the market for electric cars is not there.


Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

– D.J. Kayser