We are opening up the briefing that we sent to our corporate clients on the morning of Tuesday, November 8, 2022, to the public on the threat that Nicole poses to the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula, as well as the potential end of week blizzard in the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. We hope that everyone is preparing ahead of these storms and that those in the path stay safe. We will also continue to have updates on these systems on our Weather Videos page.
Praedictix Briefing: Tuesday morning, November 8th, 2022
- Subtropical Storm Nicole is strengthening this morning east-northeast of the Bahamas and will continue to do so the next few days as the storm heads toward Florida.
- It is expected the storm will be near or at hurricane strength as it approaches the northwest Bahamas and the east coast of Florida Wednesday into Thursday.
- Do NOT focus on the exact path of Nicole!!! Impacts will be felt far from the center of Nicole – particularly to the north of the center – which will affect many areas of the Florida Peninsula and the Southeastern United States. These impacts can – and likely will – be felt outside of the “cone of uncertainty”.
- These impacts include dangerous storm surge and significant coastal flooding, which will be exacerbated by high astronomical tides already in place.
- Hurricane conditions are possible across the Bahamas Wednesday into Wednesday Night, and along portions of the eastern Florida coast Wednesday Night as Nicole continues to slowly strengthen before landfall. Tropical storm force winds could be felt across much of Florida and into the Southeastern United States through the end of the week.
- Heavy rainfall (up to/over a half a foot) could lead to flash and urban flooding across Florida and the Southeast through the end of the week. This will continue flooding along the St. Johns River, which is still in flood stage after Ian’s heavy rain at the end of September.
- Meanwhile, during the late week timeframe a winter storm and potential blizzard will impact the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Over a foot of snow could fall across portions of the Dakotas.
Subtropical Storm Nicole. Nicole is slowly starting to strengthen east-northeast of the Bahamas as the storm is beginning the transition to become a fully “tropical” system. As of 7 AM EST, the center of Nicole was about 385 miles east-northeast of the northwestern Bahamas with winds of 50 mph. Winds of at least 40 mph extend outward up to 380 miles from the center, particularly north and east of the center, showing how large this storm is and how impacts can be felt far from the center of the storm. The system is moving west-northwest at 8 mph.
Track of Nicole. Nicole will continue to slowly strengthen (and become fully tropical) over the next couple of days as the system approaches the northwestern Bahamas and the Southeastern United States.
- Nicole is expected to turn west/west-southwest later today, continuing in that motion through Wednesday and strengthening as it does so.
- This track would bring Nicole near the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday and approach the east coast of Florida Wednesday Night. Due to the slow strengthening expected, Nicole will be near or at hurricane strength Wednesday into Wednesday night.
- Nicole is, and will continue to be, a large system as we head through the next several days. Due to this, impacts will be felt far from the center of the storm in the Bahamas and the Southeastern United States, especially on the north side of the storm. These impacts will include coastal flooding and storm surge, heavy rains, and strong winds. Do NOT focus on just the center track of the storm!
- Unlike yesterday when Nicole was expected to move out into the Gulf and make another landfall in the Big Bend region, this system is expected to stay inland and turn to the northwest/north-northwest Thursday. This means Nicole will continue to weaken as it moves off to the northwest across the Southeastern United States before becoming post-tropical into the weekend.
Hurricane And Tropical Storm Alerts. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings are in place across the northwestern Bahamas and into the Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia. Warnings are issued about 36 hours before the first expected occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, and watches are issued about 48 hours before the first expected occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds. Along the coasts, here are where the alerts are in place:
- Hurricane Warning:
- The Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas
- Tropical Storm Warning:
- Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera in the northwestern Bahamas
- Hallandale Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
- Lake Okeechobee
- Hurricane Watch:
- Hallandale Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida
- Lake Okeechobee
- Tropical Storm Watch:
- South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida
- North of Bonita Beach to the Ochlockonee River Florida
Storm Surge Alerts. We are watching the potential of a dangerous storm surge the next few days in the northwestern Bahamas and along the east coast of Florida up into southeastern Georgia. Storm surge is where dry areas near the coast are flooded by rising water moving inland. Here are where storm surge alerts are in place (note that these watches and warnings are only issued for the United States, but a dangerous storm surge will also impact the northwestern Bahamas):
- Storm Surge Warning:
- North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
- Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida
- Storm Surge Watch:
- South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
Dangerous Storm Surge. We will see coastal flooding and a dangerous storm surge along the east coast of Florida and in the northwestern Bahamas over the next couple of days. What is important to note is that tides are already astronomically high due to the full moon, so we will pile more water on top of those already elevated high tides.
- If the peak surge occurs at high tide, we could see the water reach 3-5 feet above ground from North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge.
- A storm surge in the northwest Bahamas could raise water levels by 4-6 feet in areas of onshore wind.
- The deepest water will occur near and to the north of landfall locations, where large, destructive waves will accompany the storm surge.
Heavy Rain/Flood Threat. Through Friday, Nicole will bring the potential of 3-7” of rain across the northwestern Bahamas into many areas of the Florida Peninsula, with up to 4” across parts of Georgia and South Carolina. As the system accelerates up the East Coast along a cold front into the weekend, many areas of the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast (especially Appalachians eastward) could see upwards of 4” of rain as well.
- These heavy rains will lead to the potential of flash flooding, and potentially exacerbate the coastal flood threat, especially across portions of the Southeast.
Readiness Timing. As tropical-storm force winds (39+ mph) arrive, any preparations ahead of Nicole will start to become difficult, so this map serves as good timing as to when preparations should be completed.
- By Wednesday morning, tropical storm force winds are expected to arrive across portions of the northern Bahamas, so any preparations here should be rushed to completion today.
- Tropical storm force winds are expected to arrive along the Florida coast late Wednesday, spreading across the peninsula Wednesday Night into Thursday. Any preparations near the Florida coast should be completed Wednesday morning. Farther inland, they should be completed by Wednesday night.
- The wind field with Nicole will continue to be large, enhanced by an area of high pressure to the north making a tight pressure gradient. This means wind impacts will be felt far to the north of the center of Nicole, outside of the “cone of uncertainty”.
- The strongest winds, again approaching or topping hurricane force (74+ mph), will be felt near the landfall point.
Peak Wind Gusts. The strongest winds are expected to be near where the center of the circulation makes landfall in eastern Florida, somewhere along the Space and Treasure coasts. In these areas, wind gusts to hurricane force are possible.
Tornado Threat. Tropical systems that approach/make landfall always carry a tornado threat with them. This threat will occur across the Florida peninsula on Wednesday, spreading north across portions of the Southeast into Thursday.
End Of Week Winter Storm. Nicole isn’t the only impactful weather we’re tracking across the United States this week. The first major winter storm of the season is expected to impact the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest from Wednesday Night into Friday. Over a foot of snow could fall in some locations. There is the potential this could be a blizzard across parts of the Dakotas, with wind gusts up to 50 mph possible. Winter Storm Watches extend from eastern Montana and Wyoming across the Dakotas into northern Minnesota.
Major to Extreme Impacts. While we would expect a lot of travel impacts with this being the first major winter system of the year, the amount of snow, potential ice, and strong winds will cause major to extreme impacts from the Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota through Friday morning. Considerable to substantial disruptions to daily life are expected.
Snowfall Potential Through 6 PM Saturday. The heaviest snowfall amounts are expected to fall from north-central South Dakota northwest across North Dakota into northern Minnesota. In these locations, 9”+ of snow is possible, with up to a foot and a half possible in some locations. This snow will cause major impacts across the region, including difficult to impossible travel conditions.
Ice Potential Through 6 PM Saturday. Up to a quarter of an inch of ice could also fall across portions of the Upper Midwest, with some of the heaviest possible in the Ellendale, ND, to Aberdeen, SD, areas. This ice could cause power outages and tree damage and make for nearly impossible travel.
Strong Wind Gusts. We will also see strong winds gusts of 40-50 mph while the snow is falling across the Upper Midwest during the end of the week, which will cause areas of blowing snow and the potential of blizzard conditions. That would mean visibility will be significantly reduced, bringing in another factor for hazardous (up to impossible) travel conditions.