Why Every Business Needs Professional Weather Consulting

You can’t successfully optimize your business or keep staff and clients safe without professional weather consulting. A combination of technology and human expertise/intervention is required in the 2020s, with the frequency and intensity of extreme weather disasters on the rise across the United States.

I say that from personal experience. I was a TV meteorologist for 40 years, mostly Twin Cities and Chicago, and even though my daily emphasis was on the “metro area” forecasts were broad and statewide in scope, covering tens of thousands of square miles. It was a summary, an average for a huge geographic area. Forecasts focused on the area where most people lived, with obvious bias for big cities. There was no time or incentive to personalize future weather for specific business needs or an individual facility. True weather personalization for business required an entirely different approach with Praedictix.

The Role of Meteorologists in Business: Why Weather Models Aren’t Enough

Relying on social media clicks, AI noise or that shiny new weather app on your smartphone to give you the information you need when you need it is a perilous undertaking. So much noise, so little wisdom. Praedictix meteorologists are experts at utilizing scores of weather models to come up with the best forecast. Meteorology is both science and art. The “art” is leveraging decades of experience to know which weather models to believe…and when. And if it’s best to ignore the models altogether.

Our confidence levels rise when weather models all agree on an upcoming weather threat. That rarely happens. The best weather models update 4 times daily; some update every hour. Is the solution consistent from run to run or is there more volatility with an upcoming extreme weather event? We translate model spread into decision windows (go/hold/shift) for your sites. Often a very specific model works better in a given scenario, based on personal experience over many years. This is where a team of veteran meteorologists make a tangible difference, being able to separate out the signal from the noise, cutting through the weather-model-clutter to create the most accurate, actionable forecast for a specific GPS point or a company’s unique footprint.

In truth meteorology is a humbling profession, with a very steep learning curve. You learn by being wrong and doing a thorough analysis of why you were wrong. Rinse and repeat, thousands of times. What blend of models should I have used, in 20/20 hindsight? Because every storm is different; each new extreme weather threat is unique. The weather rhymes but never repeats. That’s where professional weather consulting can help you make smart decisions for business operations, without being inundated by a firehose of conflicting forecasts or social media clickbait. 

The Cost of Severe Weather: How Extremes Impact Business ROI

America is the Super Bowl of Weather. No country on Earth experiences as much extreme weather, overall, as we do. From logistics, transportation and supply chains to facility operations and employee safety, extreme weather impacts business across the board, including productivity, “up-time” and profitability. The U.S. ranks first in the world in number of tornadoes, hurricane costs, hail damage and insured losses from flooding.

Tornadoes: average of 1,150 to 1,200 tornadoes annually, the result of huge temperature extremes.

Hurricanes: the United States is the undisputed global leader in economic losses from hurricanes. No other nation comes close to the sheer dollar volume of destruction the U.S. experiences from these storms. On average, over the last 45–50 years, hurricanes have cost the U.S. economy approximately $34 billion per year. However, this “average” is heavily back-loaded. Costs have skyrocketed in recent decades due to increased coastal development and wealth. People like to live near warm (hurricane-friendly) bodies of water, and that comes with inherent risk during summer and fall.

Hail:  the U.S. receives the highest volume of large hail reports annually, the result of numerous “supercell” thunderstorms, especially across the Great Plains, the “Hail Capital of the World”.

Severe Flooding: the U.S. likely leads the world in insured flooding losses (dollar amount) because we have built expensive infrastructure in vulnerable zones, close to rivers and along our coastline.

Wildfires: the U.S. is seeing a rapid increase in “Mega-fires” (high severity burns that destroy property). Fires are burning larger, longer and hotter due to a warming climate. America is unique because our wildland-urban interface (where houses meet forests) is so densely populated, meaning U.S. fires generate more “reports” and news coverage because they often impact more people and property.

Winter blizzards, snowstorms and icing events: In a typical year, winter storms cost the U.S. economy between $10 billion and $30 billion in direct and indirect losses to business. During a severe winter (like 2021) that number can spike to over $150 billion in loss.

What Are Some of the Questions That Can Be Answered with Weather Consulting?

• Precise Timing: What time will the snow begin and end. Should we send staff home early?

• Tailoring Operations: What part of the state has the best chance of “black ice” and should we pause deliveries to avoid slip-and-fall injuries?

• Emergency Response: With hurricane landfall should we tell our staff to shelter in place at home or evacuate inland?

• Highlighting “Weather Windows of Concern”: The risk of large tornadoes in our area is unusually high – when should we prepare for power outages?

• Optimize Construction Schedules: Will it be too wet to pour concrete tomorrow afternoon? What windows of dry weather are available?

• Crane Operations: On-site cranes need to be secured when winds top 40 mph. What hours will be windiest?

• Force Majeure Claims: I need to be able to prove that extreme weather delayed my project.

• Weather Event Planning: Will our upcoming outdoor event have to worry about heat stress? Should we start earlier in the day?

• Precision Weather-Planning Tool: Lightning in the area will interfere with our construction plans. What days/hours look lightning-free?

• Key Weather Input for Logistics and Transportation: Should our long-haul shipments take a southern interstate route to avoid blizzard potential?

• Forensic Meteorology Wins Legal Cases. Was damaging hail reported at my location at any time in the last 2 years?

• Real-time County-level Emergency Assistance: A flood watch is posted but which specific areas are at greatest risk of river flooding and mudslides?

• Lowering Weather Liability Concerns: I’m worried about nursing home slip-and-fall accidents. Can you alert me when conditions are ripe?

• Timing Snow, Rain and Ice: We want to pre-position snowplows. What part of the metro will see the heaviest amounts?

Is America’s Weather Really Becoming More Extreme?

The rise in billion-dollar disasters is not a statistical anomaly; it is a structural shift in risk. It comes from a convergence of two major factors: extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change: a warmer, wetter, more volatile climate – at the very same time the US is building more expensive assets in vulnerable areas near rivers and hurricane-prone coastal areas, as well as in the Urban Wildland Interface (UWI) in the western US. Living near a forest comes with inherent risk.

Image credit: Climate Central

Consider this: In the 1980s, the U.S. averaged 3 separate billion-dollar disasters per year (CPI-adjusted). In the last five years, that average has surged to 23 events per year. It’s not your imagination. The era of “weather on steroids” has arrived. New times require new tools, technologies and expert consultation.

FAQ

Is relying on Free Weather Apps a Liability for Your Business?

Full disclosure: I have many weather apps on my phone and they’re great for the current temperature and a quick glimpse at radar. But relying on apps to make strategic, time-sensitive decisions about weather is like relying on a Tik Tok video for big financial decisions. Bad idea.

A weather app uses only one model with no human intervention, correction or explanation. You get what you get, sort of a little digital snack. With professional weather consulting you get a meteorological buffet, with details and precision forecasts and alerts tailored for your facilities, operations and business models, lowering overall risk and liability over time.

Put another way, a weather app is like a flashlight, illuminating the path immediately in front of you. Weather experts like Praedictix are a lighthouse, guiding you around the hazards that can sink your business. In an era of extreme weather volatility, relying on free data is a liability—professional hype-free guidance is an asset. 

Weather apps or AI won’t replace the need for context, perspective and human judgement that only comes from decades of experience helping businesses lower their weather risk. Setting expectations for upcoming extreme weather events without the hand-waving or drama. As I learned during my meteorology training at Penn State in the late 1970s, the most accurate weather forecasts are a mix of man + machine. That hasn’t changed in 50 years.

What Can Professional Weather Consulting Do That Weather Apps Cannot?

A free app will tell you there might be a storm in your county, prompting you to shut down operations unnecessarily. That downtime costs you thousands in lost productivity. Praedictix provides precision start-and-stop times specific to your GPS coordinates. Weather apps (and sadly TV meteorologists – I should know) tend to issue forecasts that are broad and conservative. To avoid missing a storm, they often “over-warn” large geographic areas. What might work for the general public doesn’t work for site-specific companies on a deadline with numbers to hit.

Legal liability is another concern. If there is a weather-related accident or injury at a company facility the subject of due diligence will inevitably come up. Relying on a free consumer weather app is a weak legal defense in a negligence lawsuit. It does not constitute ‘due diligence.’ Hiring Praedictix demonstrates a high standard of Duty of Care. We provide a detailed storm timeline and explanation, along with an archived, time-stamped record of the professional guidance you received, proving you took proactive, expert-led steps to protect your employees and customers.

Specificity Matters. Weather apps and media forecasts don’t dive into the details. Your phone doesn’t know that your cranes can’t operate in winds over 35mph, or that your concrete pour fails below 28°F. We don’t just give you a forecast; we build customized triggers based on your operational limits. We filter out the noise and only alert you when your specific business thresholds are about to be breached, giving you time to react and prepare. It turns out all weather, like politics, is local.

The Human Factor. Weather apps run on automated computer models that can flip-flop every 6 hours. When a multi-million dollar asset is at risk, you need a human to interpret the nuance. We act as your 24/7 operational backstop. When models disagree, our meteorologists intervene to tell you which scenario is most likely, giving you the confidence to make the hard call—whether that’s evacuating a venue or keeping the supply chain moving.

Weather-Whiplash is real. America is moving from a climate of ‘averages’ to a climate of ‘extremes.’ Historical data is no longer a reliable predictor of the future. Praedictix provides seasonal outlooks that help you hedge against volatility. Whether it’s pre-ordering de-icing salt or adjusting energy futures, we help you see the curve in the road before your competitors do. Now, more than ever, it’s important to peer over the horizon and be prepared for longer-term impacts on your bottom line.

Does Professional Weather Consulting Have a Tangible ROI?

None of us hesitate to take out an insurance policy for our homes and vehicles. But weather? Maybe I can wing it and go with my gut? Not surprising, considering we are a nation of armchair meteorologists.  Because we all experience weather and have access to weather apps and 24/7 TV weather coverage, we may feel comfortable making the call ourselves. I get it. Company executives often mistake data availability (having a weather app or website) for decision intelligence (knowing what to do with that all that data). But the need for experts, seasoned meteorologists, is more essential and mission-critical than ever to mitigate weather risk with a high degree of confidence. You want fewer false alarms and more timely taps on the shoulder when one of your facilities faces imminent risk from fire, floods, hail or tornadoes 2-5 days from now. Nobody wants unpleasant weather surprises. I’m an old Eagle Scout and the motto applies for business weather risk. Be Prepared.

Lowering weather risk for your business is critical to personal safety, reducing weather downtime, providing supply chain weather resilience and lowering liability, something no weather app will ever provide. At a time when extreme weather disasters are on the rise you can utilize new, cutting-edge meteorological tools and human intervention to better set expectations and quantify weather risk, with your specific business needs top of mind. Here’s a forecast I’ll get right: What worked in the 1980s won’t work in the 2020s. Expert weather consulting isn’t a perk. It’s a prerequisite. Everything else is yesterday’s weather.

America’s weather volatility is increasing. Extreme weather disruptions are on the rise. That is our new reality. Professional weather consulting helps you achieve your goals, save money and keep people safe, no matter what Mother Nature throws at us.

About the author: Paul Douglas is a nationally-recognized Penn State meteorologist, founder and majority owner of Praedictix, based in the Twin Cities. Over the years his television meteorology career took him to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, New York City, Chicago and the Twin Cities, where he has lived since 1983. He has started 7 weather-tech companies, created special effects for Steve Spielberg’s movies “Twister” and “Jurassic Park” and authored 4 books on weather and climate, most recently “A Kid’s Guide to Saving the Planet: It’s Not Hopeless and We’re Not Helpless”. Paul’s CV is here.