National Weather Forecast

The big story we’ll be keeping an eye on Saturday is the tropical system moving through portions of the Deep South as we go through the day, bringing heavy tropical rain bands, gusty winds, and maybe a few tornadoes. Elsewhere, some storms will be possible from the Northeast back to the Rockies. Excessive heat continues in the Southwest.

The heaviest rain through Sunday evening will fall across the northern Gulf Coast and the Southeast due to our tropical system moving through the region with heavy rain. Some areas could see at least 3-8” of rain, with isolated 12” amounts. Another area of heavy rain will fall Friday Night across the Ohio River Valley with the potential of 2-4” for some locations.


Praedictix Corporate Weather Briefing: Friday morning, June 18th, 2021

Late Morning Look At Three. While Three is slowly becoming better organized, it does not have enough characteristics for the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to declare it officially a tropical depression, so Three remains with the “Potential Tropical Cyclone” designation for now. As of the 10 AM CT update from the NHC, Three was located about 220 miles south of Morgan City, LA, or 340 miles south-southwest of Mobile, AL, and moving north-northeast at 14 mph. Three had sustained winds of 35 mph.

Landfall Expected Tonight. This system still has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm (named Claudette) before it makes landfall along the northern Gulf Coast tonight, but additional significant strengthening is not expected. This system will continue to the north-northeast for the next day or two before turning more northeastward into the weekend. This system will move slowly across the Southeastern United States through the weekend into early next week, spreading heavy rain along its path.

Tropical Storm Warnings. Due to the potential of tropical storm conditions across portions of the northern Gulf Coast, Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued from East of Morgan City (LA) to the Okaloosa/Walton County line (FL) including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans.

Main Threat: Heavy Rain. The greatest threat from this system will be bands of heavy tropical rains that begin today along the northern Gulf Coast and push farther inland across the Southeast as we head through the weekend. A widespread area of at least 3-8” of rain, with isolated 12” amounts, is expected through the weekend across the Southeast – particularly near the Gulf Coast.

Flood Risk. Flood Watches have been put in place from New Orleans to Atlanta as the heavy rain that is expected to fall across the region could lead to considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding the next few days. The highest chances of heavy rain and flooding will occur from New Orleans to Mobile today, with the greatest risk tomorrow stretching from the northern Gulf Coast to western Georgia.

Storm Surge Potential. The combination of storm surge and the tide will result in flooding for normally dry locations near the coast due to rising waters pushing inland. Summary of peak surge expected:

  • Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL…2-3 ft
  • Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay…2-3 ft
  • Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…1-2 ft
  • Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL…1-2 ft
  • Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay…1-2 ft
  • Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA…1-2 ft Vermilion Bay…1-2 ft

Tornado Threat. Tropical entities typically have the threat of waterspouts and tornadoes, and this one won’t be different. We are watching a Marginal Risk of severe weather (threat level 1 of 5) across the northern Gulf Coast and portions of the Southeast Friday through Sunday due to this tornado threat.

Excessive Heat Continues. We continue to track record-breaking heat out in the western United States over the next several days, with areas like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Sacramento under Excessive Heat Warnings. Numerous record highs will continue to fall daily through at least the first half of the weekend.

Heat Safety. Remember to practice heat safety in these areas over the next several days as over the past 30 years heat has been the leading cause of weather fatalities. You can find more information on heat safety from NOAA:

D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix


NASA: Earth Is Absorbing an ‘Unprecedented’ Amount of Heat

More from Earther: “Ominous new research shows that the Earth is taking in a shocking amount of heat. In the past 15 years, the amount of incoming solar radiation trapped on the surface and in the oceans has doubled. The findings, published in Geophysical Research Letters by scientists at NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, are a deafening klaxon that the planet is rapidly shifting outside the boundaries that have allowed civilization to thrive.

AI Could Spot Wildfires Faster Than Humans

More from Scientific American: “During his eight years as community alert and warning manager in Sonoma County, California, Sam Wallis has repeatedly watched wildfires roar through the cities and small towns he protects. Often with little warning, fires have razed homes and charred the area’s picturesque hillsides, valleys and vineyards just north of San Francisco. Wallis had to evacuate his own home last year. And in 2017 his property was strewn with wind-blown debris from the deadly, 37,000-acre Tubbs Fire, one of the most destructive in California’s history. “The Tubbs Fire was the seminal event, an absolutely massive and fast-moving fire that we had no way of tracking,” Wallis says. Once that blaze was squelched, several local agencies began installing a system of tower-mounted cameras, called ALERTWildfire, to look for smoke and flames so that fires could be attacked before raging out of control. Sonoma County’s 21 high-powered devices scan and photograph fire-prone areas. Every 10 seconds they send images that help confirm—and sometimes discover—flare-ups. Dispatchers in the county’s fire emergency center try to keep tabs on these incoming images, displayed on a wall of video monitors, and alert emergency crews if they see any suspicious smoke. They also take 911 calls from citizens.

China’s electric car leaders predict new energy vehicles will dominate the local market by 2030

More from CNBC: “New energy vehicles will dominate the world’s largest auto market in about ten years, two executives from major Chinese electric car companies predicted over the weekend. New energy vehicles refer to battery-powered and hybrid cars. The category accounted for more than 10% of new car sales in China in March, and grew to 11.4% in May, said Wang Chuanfu, founder of BYD. He forecast that the penetration rate would surge to more than 70% in 2030. That’s according to a transcript the company provided of his remarks at the China Auto Chongqing Summit held June 12 and 13.


Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

– D.J. Kayser