National Weather Forecast
We’ll be watching storm activity ahead of a cold front on Friday in the northwestern United States, with storms extending south into the Southwest as moisture streams northward into the region. Storms will also be possible with a system in the Northeast, and south of a stationary front in the Southeast. Hot weather is expected in the Plains and the South Central United States.
The heaviest rain through Saturday will be in the eastern United States, where some areas could see 2-4” of rain. We will also be watching the potential of heavy rain in the Southwest due to moisture flowing northward from Hurricane Hilary.
Here’s the track of Hurricane Hilary over the next few days. This system will reach major hurricane status Thursday Night, but as it starts to interact with Baja California and reach cooler waters we will see the storm start to weaken. This system could make landfall in California later Sunday into early Monday, but the main threat in the Southwest from it will be the heavy rainfall.
Forecast models show the potential of at least 3-6” of rain across portions of the Southwest – especially in parts of California and Nevada – over the next week as Hilary moves into the region.
U.S. hurricane deaths concentrated in vulnerable counties, research finds
More from NBC News: “People in socially vulnerable counties have accounted for the vast majority of deaths from hurricanes in the U.S. over the past 30 years, according to a wide-ranging study that drew on decades of data. The study, published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances, used excess mortality data to more completely understand deaths related to hurricanes from 1988 to 2019. The researchers found that almost 94% of those fatalities were among people who lived in counties that ranked medium to high on the Center of Disease Control and Prevention’s social vulnerability index, which uses census data to identify socially vulnerable people in the U.S. … The study provides one of the deepest looks yet at how natural disasters — many of which are affected by climate change — often have a disproportionate impact on poor people and minorities.”
Canada’s Northwest Territories declare a state of emergency as more than 230 wildfires rage
More from Grist: “More than 230 fires are burning in the Northwest Territories of Canada, scorching over 8,000 miles of forest, and displacing hundreds of Indigenous and First Nations peoples. The population of the Northwest Territories is nearly 50 percent Indigenous. “It’s all just really terrifying,” said Morgan Tsetta, a member of the Yellowknives Dene First Nation in a TikTok video she released Tuesday. Tsetta lives in Yellowknife, the region’s capital city, which she said was at risk of evacuation and that residents were preparing go bags in case they had to flee. With the only road leading out of Yellowknife blocked due to the fires, Tsetta said alternate routes could take hours.”
Little warning, few escape routes, phones knocked out: The chilling similarities between the Maui and Paradise fires
More from CNN: “The flames took so much in Lahaina. More than 2,200 homes and businesses – structures reduced to ashen piles in the angular plots on which they once stood; family cars and work vehicles, now hollowed out metallic shells packed in the streets; even boats that were caught in the storm of embers. And the people who visited and lived in this thriving, historic community: More than 100 lives lost to the deadliest disaster in Hawaii’s state history, and the deadliest wildfire in the US in over 100 years. A fire with so much loss and destruction shouldn’t have precedent, but recent history has proven otherwise. Just five years ago in California, on a wind-whipped November morning, toppled electrical lines sparked the beginnings of what was the deadliest wildfire in modern US history before Lahaina: the Camp Fire.”
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– D.J. Kayser