Tracking Elsa Into Independence Day Weekend – National Forecast For July 3, 2021

National Weather Forecast

On Saturday, a stalled-out boundary from the Southern Plains to the Southeast will bring the potential for showers and storms. That boundary stretches north into the Northern Plains, where it will slowly move east through the day, sparking off some late-day storms – some of which could be strong. Rain and storms will be possible in the Northeast with a low moving offshore.

The heaviest rain through the Independence Day weekend will be from the Southern Plains through the Southeast (particularly along portions of the coasts) and into New England, where at least 1-2” of rain could fall.

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Latest On Elsa

Elsa became a hurricane Friday morning as the system was approaching the Lesser Antilles. As the system continues to race off to the west it should remain at hurricane strength before finally weakening as it deals with land interactions late this weekend into early into next week. It looks like Elsa will cross Cuba early next week before impacting the Southeastern United States with strong winds, heavy rain, and storm surge.

As of early Friday evening, Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches and Warnings stretched the Caribbean from Cuba to the Lesser Antilles.

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Over 100 fire scientists urge the US West: Skip the fireworks this record-dry 4th of July

More from The Conversation: “For decades, one of the most striking and predictable patterns of human behavior in the western U.S. has been people accidentally starting fires on the Fourth of July. From 1992 to 2015, more than 7,000 wildfires started in the U.S. on July 4 – the most wildfires ignited on any day during the year. And most of these are near homes. With this year’s tinder-dry grasslands and parched forests, sparks from anything – a cigarette, a campfire, a power line, even a mower blade hitting a rock – could ignite a wildfire, with deadly consequences.”

Astounding heat obliterates all-time records across the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada in June 2021

More from Climate.gov: “One of, if not the, worst heat wave in the region’s modern records impacted the Pacific Northwest of the United States and western Canada during late June 2021, not just breaking records but smashing them over an incredibly hot four-day period. And unlike the heat wave across the Southwest United States in mid-June, this time the dangerous heat was felt across a region not known for such extremes. … Portland, Oregon’s, average high temperature over this period was 112 degrees Fahrenheit, the hottest three-day period on record by an astonishing 6 degrees. All three days—108 on June 26, 112 on June 27, and 116 on June 28—set all-time heat records for the city. Seattle, Washington, also had back-to-back days that set all-time heat records: 108 on June 28 after reaching 104 the day prior. In fact, in the previous 126 years, Seattle had only hit 100 degrees three times. It reached that mark in three consecutive days in June!”

Global Warming Cauldron Boils Over in the Northwest in One of the Most Intense Heat Waves on Record Worldwide

More from Inside Climate News: “The intensity of the heat wave, measured by how far temperatures are spiking above normal, is among the greatest ever measured globally. The extremes are on par with a 2003 European heat wave that killed about 70,000 people, and a 2013 heat wave in Australia, when meteorologists added new shades of dark purple to their maps to show unprecedented temperatures. And the more extreme the temperature records, climate scientists said, the more obvious the fingerprint of global warming will be on the heat wave. But even among climate scientists, the biggest concern was the immediate impacts of the record shattering temperatures.”

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– D.J. Kayser