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Overnight Tropical Depression Four-E was upgraded to Tropical Storm Ela in the Central Pacific, with winds at 11 PM Hawaiian time of 40 mph. This was Ela earlier this morning (lower 48 time) – a fairly disorganized system that had just enough strength to reach over the tropical storm threshold.
The good news is that not much strengthening is expected from Ela before we start to see some gradual weakening over the next few days. Strong wind shear is the main factor in play keeping this system disorganized. The storm is expected to become a tropical depression once again by tomorrow morning, and whatever is left of the system will pass north of the Hawaiian Islands as we head into the weekend.
While all of the models keep the (weakened) system north of the island chain, we likely will still see some effects in Hawaii from the storm. As the system moves north, Ela will help disrupt the trade winds, leading to a decrease in winds across the islands. Moisture will be on the increase, however, and increased clouds along with rain is possible this weekend. High surf can also be expected, especially on the north side of the islands.
(CHECK OUT YOUR FORECAST: wx.aerisweather.com)
– Meteorologist D.J. Kayser
