Watching The Tropics (Already) – National Weather Outlook For May 22, 2021

National Weather Forecast

We continue to watch the chance of rain and snow out west as we head into Saturday, with showers and storms draped across the central U.S. into the Northeast. An area of high pressure in the Southeast will keep them dry – and by early next week could bring 100-degree highs to portions of the region.

Several inches of snow could accumulate out in the western mountains through the weekend. Meanwhile, the heaviest rain will fall along the Gulf Coast, where another 1-3” of rain will be possible.

Meanwhile, while the Atlantic tropical season doesn’t technically begin until June 1st, the National Hurricane Center is tracking the potential for development. Here’s the latest as of 1 PM CT Friday:

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low

pressure area centered about 300 miles northeast of Bermuda have

diminished somewhat over the past several hours, and the system has

not yet acquired subtropical storm characteristics. However,

the low is producing gale-force winds, and any increase in

organization would result in advisories being initiated on the

system later today or tonight as it moves westward to

west-southwestward to the northeast of Bermuda. Subsequently,

the low is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile

environment by Saturday night or Sunday. Additional information on

this low pressure area can be found in High Seas forecasts issued by

the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products, including a

tropical storm watch, issued by the Bermuda Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

2. Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a

well-defined low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico has

winds of 30-35 mph near and east of the center. The associated

shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited, but any increase

in this activity may result in the formation of a short-lived

tropical depression or storm before the system moves inland over the

northwestern Gulf coast tonight, and potential tropical cyclone

advisories may be needed as early as this afternoon. Regardless of

development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions

of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday.

Given the complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding

along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead

to flash, urban, and additional riverine flooding across this

region. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding

potential can be found in products issued by your local National

Weather Service Forecast Office.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

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‘Clyde’s Spot’ on Jupiter Is Starting to Look Pretty Weird

More from Gizmodo: “Last May, a spot suddenly appeared in Jupiter’s southern hemisphere. But as new images from the Juno spacecraft show, the once circular feature has morphed into an enigmatic splotch. The feature was first detected by Clyde Foster, director of the Shallow Sky section of the Astronomical Society of Southern Africa, on May 31, 2020. Foster spotted the spot using his own 14-inch telescope, and, quite fortuitously, NASA’s Juno probe made a close approach two days later, allowing for a close-up view of the new feature. Clyde’s Spot, as it’s informally known, is a convective outbreak—a plume of cloud that’s reaching out beyond the regular cloud tops—and is located to the southeast of Jupiter’s Great Red Spot. Such outbreaks are not uncommon within the gas giant’s South Temperate Belt.”

Documents reveal natural gas chaos in Texas blackouts

More from E&E News: “Texas’ electricity leaders were deeply focused on natural gas shortages days before blackouts crippled the state in February and plunged the state’s power industry into chaos, according to documents obtained by E&E News. A phone log shows more than 100 calls to or from DeAnn Walker, then-chair of the Public Utility Commission of Texas, discussing gas curtailments. It begins Feb. 10 — well before massive power outages started on Feb. 15 — and runs through Feb. 19. Walker spoke to everyone from the chief of staff of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) to power company officials. During the cold blast, Abbott promoted fossil fuels and blamed renewable energy before walking back some of that criticism.”

Analysis: China’s carbon emissions grow at fastest rate for more than a decade

More from CarbonBrief: “China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have grown at their fastest pace in more than a decade, increasing by 15% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021, new analysis for Carbon Brief shows. The post-pandemic surge means China’s emissions reached a new record high of nearly 12bn tonnes (GtCO2) in the year ending March 2021. This is some 600m tonnes (5%) above the total for 2019. The analysis is based on official figures for the domestic production, import and export of fossil fuels and cement, as well as commercial data on changes in stocks of stored fuel.”

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– D.J. Kayser