Praedictix Briefing: Major April Storm To Bring Snow, High Winds, And Severe Threat To Central US

This is a sample of the briefing we sent to our clients on Wednesday, April 10th, 2019, on the major winter storm and blizzard set to impact the Upper Midwest.

Praedictix Briefing: Wednesday, April 10^th, 2019

• A strong April storm over the Central High Plains will continue to move to the east and northeast through the end of the work week, bringing the potential of heavy snow and high winds to the Plains and Upper Midwest.
• A swath of heavy snow is likely across parts of the Upper Midwest, with areas from northern Nebraska into western Minnesota in line for the potential of 18”+ of snow by the end of the week. Places like Sioux Falls and the Twin Cities are likely to see periods of snow, rain, freezing rain, and sleet at times during the storm helping to decrease snow totals.
• Blizzard Warnings are in place across six states this morning from Colorado and Wyoming to Minnesota ahead of this storm, with additional Winter Storm Watches/Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories in parts of the Plains and Upper Midwest.
• As the storm strengthens across the mid-section of the nation, very strong winds are expected with wind gusts over 40 mph at times. These strong winds will be problematic in areas that receive snow, as the blowing and drifting snow will lead to blizzard conditions in areas under Blizzard Warnings, and reduced visibility elsewhere.
• Across parts of the central and southern Plains, High Wind Warnings are in place due to the potential of 60+ mph winds Wednesday into Thursday. This, along with available dry fuels, will lead to the potential of quickly spreading wildfires.
• This system will also produce the potential of severe weather across parts of Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa this afternoon and tonight. An Enhanced Risk of severe weather is in place across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas, including Lincoln and Hastings (NE), for the potential of mainly large hail and damaging winds.

Heavy Snow Potential. A band of heavy snow is expected to fall from parts of the Front Range into the western Great Lakes through the end of the week, with the heaviest amounts falling from northern Nebraska into western Minnesota. In that defined area is where snowfall tallies of at least 18″ will be possible, with the potential that some spots could see over two feet. This heavy snow will cause difficult to nearly impossible travel issues across the region as snow will likely fall at a rate of 1-2” per hour at times, which will be difficult for DOT crews (and shovelers as well) to keep up with. There will be a sharp cut-off on the south side of the system as warm air works northward, meaning that totals will quickly decrease from plowable to potentially little more than a nuisance. This is where precipitation will change back and forth between snow, rain, freezing rain, and sleet at times throughout the event. This area of potentially mixed precipitation will include areas like Sioux Falls and the Twin Cities, leading to lower overall snow totals. There is still some uncertainty as to how far north and west this warm pocket of air goes.

Ice Potential. Particularly in areas that see several changeovers in precipitation-type, icing will be a concern with this system. While icing will be possible from Nebraska into the Great Lakes, some of the highest amounts are expected from southern Minnesota into Wisconsin where totals of 0.25-0.40” are possible – including in the Worthington, MN area. This ice could cause power outages and tree damage, and make travel nearly impossible due to slick conditions.

Strong Winds Leading To Blizzard Conditions. As the system continues to strengthen across the central United States, winds will increase across the region over the next couple of days. Wind gusts of at least 40-50 mph will be possible, with some of the strongest winds expected to occur Wednesday Night into Thursday. These strong winds will be problematic in areas that receive snow, as the blowing and drifting snow will lead to blizzard conditions in areas under Blizzard Warnings, and reduced visibility elsewhere. The snow and wind – especially combined – will lead to very difficult to impossible travel conditions. Numerous roads could be shut down across the region, including major interstates, similar to other strong winter storms/blizzards we’ve seen since February.  These strong winds will also bring the potential of power outages.

Strong Winds In The Southern Plains. This strong storm will also produce gusty winds across parts of the Southern Plains Wednesday into Thursday. Wind gusts over 60 mph will be possible. These strong winds will have the potential to cause driving issues, blowing dust, flying debris, and power outages.

High Wind Warnings. Due to the expected strong winds across parts of the Plains Wednesday into Thursday, numerous High Wind Warnings have been issued from southern Nebraska to the Mexico border.

Extreme Fire Danger. With the strong winds expected across parts of the Plains, as well as expected low humidity values and dry fuels in place, an environment ripe for wildfire growth will be present today across the region. Across parts of Texas and New Mexico – including El Paso and Amarillo – an Extreme Fire Danger is in place.

Severe Weather Threat As Well. This system will also produce the potential for severe weather in the warm sector. An Enhanced Risk of severe weather is in place today across parts of Nebraska and Kansas, including Lincoln and Hastings (NE). By the mid-to-late afternoon hours, storms are expected to form across the region and quickly strengthen. These storms will mainly be capable of very large hail and damaging winds, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out. These storms will push into western Iowa overnight.

D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix