— D.J. Kayser | Praedictix (@dkayserwx) June 11, 2015
Rain is the story across the upper Midwest today, as moisture from former tropical system Blanca has streamed into the area. This, in combination with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, will enhance rainfall throughout the day across the region. Already, some areas had picked up over a half an inch of rain so far this morning, and some areas could end up picking up 3″+ by the time the day is done.
The Twin Cities morning sounding had 1.33″ of precipitable water in the atmosphere – which is within the 90th percentile for this time of year over the area. What this means is that the atmosphere is moist – and there is the perfect conditions for all the moisture to be rained out throughout the day today. The potential exists for a good 3″+ of rain over the next 12-24 hours over parts of Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
With all that heavy rain in a short amount of time, Flash Flood Watches have been issued from Omaha to Green Bay. Parts of this area only would need 2″ of rain within three hours for flooding to occur – however, those values will likely be going down throughout the day as rain continues to fall across the region.
We’re also watching a severe threat over parts of these areas as well. An Enhanced Risk of severe weather is in place today across parts of northwest Missouri and south central Iowa – with a Slight Risk surrounding it from Denver through Chicago and into southern Michigan. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threat along with maybe a few tornadoes across the Enhanced Risk area.
Another area that could see flooding rains over the next few days is over parts of the already soaked central and southern Plains. You may remember that we saw the wettest May on record over Oklahoma and Texas, and while the area has had a break in the rain since about the beginning of June, the soil is still quite saturated across portions of these areas. With potentially 3-4″+ possible in these areas over the next five days, flooding will once again become a concern.
(CHECK OUT YOUR FORECAST: wx.aerisweather.com)
– Meteorologist D.J. Kayser