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Heavy rain is possible over the next 24 to 48 hours as a low pressure center moves through the upper Midwest. Some rain totals could exceed 2″, creating the potential of flooding in areas that have already seen a lot of rain in the past few weeks.

Rain Forecast

Forecast Three Day Rain Totals

Forecast Three Day Rain Totals

Here is a look at the latest three day rain forecast. Right now the bulls eye of rain appears to be over parts of Iowa into southern Wisconsin, where a good soaking is possible. Some of the models are outputting at least 2-3″ of rain in a swath across this region. However, we have watched the forecast of the low pressure center associated with this flux north and south over the past few days. In other words, there is a potential that the heaviest of this rain could move north or south during the event.

Flooding Rain Potential

Area Where Flooding Rains Are Possible Thursday

Area Where Flooding Rains Are Possible Thursday

Today the heaviest of the rain should occur from the Siouxland area of Minnesota, South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa down the Missouri River toward Kansas City. These areas could see rainfall amounts that could be heavy at times and exceed flash flood guidance, which takes into account current soil moisture.

Area Where Flooding Rains Are Possible Friday

Area Where Flooding Rains Are Possible Friday

For Friday, that potential flooding rain area shifts eastward into southeast Minnesota, southern Wisconsin and parts of eastern Iowa. Some of these areas would only need 2.25″ in a three hour period for flash flooding to occur.

Already Soaked This August

August Rainfall Through Wednesday The 26th

August Rainfall Through Wednesday The 26th. Image: Midwestern Regional Climate Center

Rainfall is one of the last things some of these areas actually need at the moment. Taking a look at rainfall so far this month, some of the areas expected to receive heavy rain in the next few days have already seen 3-5″+ of rain through the 26th. Here’s a look at some of the rain totals in these areas so far in August:

  • Randolph, IA: 12.55″
  • Nevada, IA: 10.00″
  • Edgarton, MN: 9.88″
  • Cherokee, IA: 9.34″
  • Omaha, NE: 8.03″
  • Ames, IA: 7.88″

For Omaha, the 8.03″ they’ve seen so far this month ranks as the eighth wettest August on record so far. They need just 0.02″ to move into a tie with 2002 for seventh. Meanwhile, the 9.24″ in Cherokee, IA, this month is good enough for the third wettest August on record, with records going back to 1921. And in Ames, IA, August 2015 is also sitting as the third wettest August on record.


– Meteorologist D.J. Kayser

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