Ice Storm In The Mid-Mississippi Valley To Ohio Valley – National Weather Outlook For February 11, 2021

National Weather Forecast

As we head through Thursday, icing concerns will continue from central Texas through the Mid-Atlantic, with some snow into portions of the Northeast and storms in the warm sector of the system. A system out west will bring rain and snow chances, with some snow in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

Up to at least a half an inch of ice will be possible from the Ozarks to eastern Kentucky (more on this below). Some areas west of D.C. could see over a half a foot of snow through Friday with feet of snow at higher elevations out west. Up to 3” of rain could fall in portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley.

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Praedictix Corporate Extreme Weather Briefing: Wednesday morning, February 10th, 2021

Ice Storm Concerns

Ice Storm. With a stationary frontal boundary stretching across portions of the Southern Plains and Tennessee Valley, wintry precipitation – particularly in the form of freezing rain – is expected on the north side of the system from the Dallas area to the Ohio Valley today and Thursday due to cold air moving in at the surface. Precipitation will continue to expand across the region today into Thursday with waves of freezing rain falling. Some of the greatest ice accumulation is expected from the Ozarks to eastern Kentucky, where at least a quarter to a half an inch of ice could fall.

Ice Storm Warnings. Numerous Ice Storm Warnings have been issued from Arkansas to Kentucky through Thursday for the major icing threat across the region. Other areas stretching from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic have Winter Storm Watches and Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories in place for ice and/or snow. Some of the major cities under alerts include:

Ice Storm Warnings:

• Little Rock, AR: Through Noon Thursday for total ice accumulations between 0.25-0.50”, mainly tonight into Thursday.
• Jonesboro, AR: Through Noon Thursday for up to 0.25” of ice.
• Paducah, KY: Through 6 PM Thursday for up to 0.50” of ice.
• Lexington, KY: Through 7 PM Thursday for up to 0.50” of ice, with localized amounts to 0.75”.
• Jackson, KY: Through 7 AM Friday for up to 0.50” of ice with locally higher amounts.

Winter Storm Warnings:

• Charleston, WV: Through 7 AM Friday for 3-5” of snow and up to 0.10” of ice.

Winter Storm Watches:

• Memphis, TN: From 6 PM Wednesday through Noon Thursday for up to 0.20” of ice.
• Roanoke, VA: From 1 PM Thursday through 7 PM Friday for up to 4” of snow/sleet and up to 0.10” of ice.
• Richmond, VA: From 1 PM Thursday through 1 PM Friday for 3-5” of snow and a glaze of ice.

Winter Weather Advisories:

• Dallas, TX: Through 6 AM Thursday for light icing.
• Oklahoma City, OK: Through 6 PM tonight for up to 0.10” of ice.
• St. Louis, MO: Through Noon today for up to 1” of snow.
• Nashville, TN: From 6 PM tonight through 6 PM Thursday for up to 0.20” of ice.
• Louisville, KY: Through 7 PM Thursday for 1-2” of snow/sleet and up to 0.20” of ice.
• Washington D.C.: From 7 PM tonight through 10 AM Thursday for 1-3” of snow.
• Philadelphia, PA: From 7 PM tonight through Noon Thursday for 1-3” of snow.

Potential Ice Totals. The ice potential will be the greatest threat across the mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys through the middle of the week. We could see at least 0.25” of ice from the Ozarks to portions of eastern Kentucky, with some of the highest totals across southern and eastern Kentucky, south of the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways. This ice would lead to hazardous or impossible travel conditions, and there would be the potential for tree damage and power outages.

An Early Heads Up. As we head toward the second half of this weekend into Presidents’ Day, another system will be diving south across the Southern Plains, bringing the potential of another round of snow and ice due to the cold air in place. We will keep an eye on this over the next several days and will continue to update.

Pacific Northwest Snow

Winter Storm Watches. Meanwhile, as an area of low-pressure approaches and makes landfall in southern Oregon Thursday, cold air will be in place across portions of the Pacific Northwest. This setup could lead to snow in lowland areas along with the typical mountain snow. Another system will be possible Friday Night into Saturday. Some Winter Storm Watches have been issued for this potential, including the following areas:

• Portland, OR: From Noon Thursday through 10 AM Saturday for 3-5” of snow Thursday night into Friday, with another 3-5” of snow Friday night into Saturday.
• Salem, OR: From 4 PM Thursday through 10 AM Saturday for 1-4” of snow Thursday night into Friday, with up to 0.4” of ice Friday night into Saturday.
• Eugene, OR: From 7 PM Thursday through Noon Friday for freezing rain.
• Olympia and Tacoma, WA: From 10 AM Thursday through 10 PM Friday for 2-4” of snow.

Snow Potential. While we are anticipating lowland snow during the second half of the week into the weekend in the Pacific Northwest, there is still uncertainty in how much could fall – including for Seattle and Portland – depending on the overall track of the systems and the cold air mass that is in place. Stay tuned over the next few days for the latest on these storms but be prepared for the potential of rough travel across the region.

D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

– D.J. Kayser