Balmy Weekend – Snow Potential Late Next Week

Two things I crave these days: spontaneity and boredom. I’m just fine with sunny 60s in November, however unsettling. We will see our fair share of snow and cold, just not as much as we did a generation ago.

When I got to Minnesota in the early 80s I distinctly remember snow (reliably) on the ground from late October through early April. There was sufficient ice for pond hockey and ice fishing by Thanksgiving. Autumn warmth is lingering deeper into November. Not every year – but most years.

At the risk of editorializing, an amazing weekend is on tap with blue sky, gentle breezes and temperatures 15-20F above average. Make the most of it, because a reality check is brewing. As inevitable as gravity and snarky tweets, the mercury cools off next week, with rain Tuesday, and a more impressive storm Thursday.

The atmosphere may be cold aloft for mostly-rain in the MSP metro, but ECMWF hints at a few inches of “snow” next Friday, possibly enough to plow over central Minnesota? Yep, November can be a very cruel mistress.

Where’s the Snow? A little slush over the Minnesota Arrowhead and UP of Michigan but otherwise bare ground across the Upper Midwest. Stay tuned – that will change.

US Drought Monitor

Drought Continues to Ease. Good news for a change: drought is virtually gone from much of central and southwestern Minnesota, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. But parts of far northern Minnesota are still dealing with severe to extreme drought.

Friday Future Clouds/Precipitation

Patchy Clouds Today Ahead of Weekend Warm Front. Clouds may dim the sun at times today, with a few (rain) showers possible north of the Twin Cities by tonight – paving the way for a partly sunny, miraculously nice weekend for the first week of November.

Weekend Bliss, Then Colder Next Week. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday should run 15-20F warmer than average, before reality sinks in next week. By the end of the week it may be cold enough for snow, especially north/west of the MSP metro area.

ECMWF Temperatures for MSP
NOAA GFS Temperatures for MSP

Chilly, Not Polar. After a potentially slushy cold weather correction late next week long range models hint at (slight) moderation before Thanksgiving – the flow still zonal, pumping in relatively mild air from the Pacific 2 weeks out.

Major Coastal Flood Event, Similar to a Hurricane Storm Surge, Underway in Charleston, South Carolina. An extended stretch of high, onshore winds are to blame. has details: “A potentially historic flood event is taking shape across Charleston Harbor, South Carolina, and portions of coastal Georgia, including near Savannah, as water levels will be at heights usually found in powerful hurricanes. The flooding will be exacerbated by a destructive combination of already higher-than-normal tides and a developing storm system, sending tide levels levels above 8 feet for Charleston and above 10.5 feet near Savannah, signaling major flood stage along the coast. “It looks like an almost perfect combination of astronomical influences and meteorological conditions,” Blair Holloway, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Charleston, said…”

October 2021 tornadoes compared with other top years since 1950.
NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC)

October Saw a Near-Record Number of Tornadoes in the United States. Capital Weather Gang has the details; here’s an excerpt: “…A preliminary count pegs the October tornado count at 119, according to the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. This is about double the long-term average for the month. If the number stands, this October will rank second-highest for tornado touchdowns during the month, behind the 123 in October 2018. It is certainly possible that the October 2021 number will rise after all of the month’s reports have been evaluated. Oklahoma, often a tornado magnet, more than doubled its October tornado count in 2021. Before the October onslaught, the year was atypically quiet across the Sooner State. Just 25 tornadoes had occurred. But 31 tornadoes occurred in four days during the month, more than doubling the yearly count and bringing the state close to its annual average…”

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Paul Douglas

Boston Among US Cities Most Vulnerable to Hurricane Damage. An article at Laconia Daily Sun caught my eye; here’s an excerpt: “…According to a recent report from CoreLogic — a property information, analytics, and data provider — nearly 8 million single-family homes are at risk of storm surge damage from hurricanes, and over 31 million homes are at risk of damage from hurricane winds nationwide. These risks are disproportionately shouldered by metropolitan areas along the Eastern Seaboard and along the Gulf of Mexico. Boston is one of only two metro areas in the Northeast to rank among the areas at risk of the most damage from hurricane storm surges in the nation. Over 159,000 single-family homes are at risk of storm surge damage in the Boston area. It would cost an estimated $54 billion to repair them. A total of 1.3 million area homes are at risk of hurricane wind damage...”

Storm Water Solutions

Atmospheric River Storms Hit Parts of Northern and Central California. From drought to flood in the meteorological blink of an eye. Storm Water Solutions has the post; here’s the intro: “Forecasters estimate that the atmospheric river storms that hit parts of northern and central California from Oct. 23 to 26 dropped 7.6 trillion gallons of rain. According to The San Diego Tribune, little of the rain fell in greater San Diego, which has drier soil. Ultimately, the atmospheric river fell apart as it moved south. The North Pacific storm that reached the Bay area on Nov. 1, and the one expected to arrive on Nov. 3 will not move into Southern California. “The jet stream is positioned to mostly go into the Pacific Northwest and northern California right now,” said Stefani Sullivan, a forecaster at the weather service office in Rancho Bernardo, reported The San Diego Tribune. “But eventually some rain should come down here.” Yosemite Park visitors saw Horsetail Fall on El Capitan flow, although it does not usually flow at this time of year. The flow is a result of the recent severe storms that swept through the area, creating the phenomenon known as a “firefall,” reported CBS San Francisco...”

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America Has Lost the Plot on COVID. What is the end goal? Everyone says “back to normal” but a more focused strategy may help to accelerate some sense of normalcy, according to an essay at The Atlantic; here’s a clip: “…So if not cases, then what? “We need to come to some sort of agreement as to what it is we’re trying to prevent,” says Céline Gounder, an infectious-disease expert at New York University. “Are we trying to prevent hospitalization? Are we trying to prevent death? Are we trying to prevent transmission?” Different goals would require prioritizing different strategies. The booster-shot rollout has been roiled with confusion for this precise reason: The goal kept shifting. First, the Biden administration floated boosters for everyone to combat breakthroughs, then a CDC advisory panel restricted them to the elderly and immuno-compromised most at risk for hospitalizations, then the CDC director overruled the panel to include people with jobs that put them at risk of infection. On the ground, the U.S. is now running an uncontrolled experiment with every strategy all at once...”

Benjamin Franklin’s Observation of an “Eclipse Hurricane” Advanced Meteorology. The Weather Network has an interesting post; here’s the intro: “The severe storm that struck what was then the American colonies on Nov. 2, 1743, was a little unusual — it may have been a late-season hurricane, or a strong mid-latitude cyclone. But whatever its nature, that one storm played an outsized role in expanding the science of meteorology. The storm is known as the “eclipse hurricane,” striking on the night of a lunar eclipse. Its clouds thwarted famed savant and scientist Benjamin Franklin’s eclipse observation efforts from Philadelphia, and he seemed to have comforted himself by focusing his talents on the hurricane instead. At first he thought the storm had come from the northeast, and presumed his brother in Boston had been similarly robbed of the eclipse. But to his surprise, he found his brother had a clear view of the eclipse, and the storm only struck there several hours later…”

52 F. Twin Cities high yesterday.

48 F. MSP average high on November 4.

74 F. MSP high on November 4, 2020.

November 5, 1941: A snowstorm hits southern Minnesota, with the heaviest snow at Fairmont.

Paul Douglas

FRIDAY: Partly sunny, windy. Winds: S 15-25. High: 56

SATURDAY: Plenty of mild sunshine. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 44. High: 61

SUNDAY: Sunny, breezy and balmy. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 47. High: 64

MONDAY: Some sun, turning cooler. Winds: N 7-12. Wake-up: 43. High: 56

TUESDAY: Periods of rain expected. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 40. High: 46

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, probably dry. Winds: E 7-12. Wake-up: 31. High: 46

THURSDAY” Heavy rain mixes with snow central MN. Winds: NE 20-40. Wake-up: 38. High: 41

Climate Stories…

Apollo 11 File

Effort to Phase Out Fossil Fuels Gains Momentum at COP26. reports: “The push to phase out fossil fuels is gaining momentum at the COP26 climate summit. At least 20 countries have agreed to end financing for fossil fuel projects abroad, a UK official told CNN, in a deal expected to be announced Thursday. Another source close to the COP26 climate summit negotiations said that the US was party to the agreement. Officials at the US State Department did not respond to CNN to confirm the country’s involvement. Several countries had already agreed to end international financing for coal, but this agreement would be the first of its kind to include oil and gas projects as well. The deal “represents a change in norms that would have been unthinkable only a few years ago,” Iskander Erzini Vernoit, a climate finance expert at think tank E3G, told CNN. “We’ve seen this go from the niche frontier concepts to at the core of the mainstream…”

“Peer Pressure” and “Humiliation” is Key at COP26. Axios has more perspective on what is happening in Stockholm: “John Kerry, in a quick aside with a few reporters here, offered the glass-half-full take on why a bunch of voluntary pledges to ward off climate change catastrophe is good reason for real hope. The U.S. special climate envoy, moments after 100+ nations agreed to steeply reduce the potent planet-warming gas methane, was asked about the absence of ways to enforce it. “We have incredible accountability through satellite measurements. And in most of this, it’s peer pressure and public scrutiny and humiliation and other things that act as incentives,” he said...”

Negotiators Get Down To Business Next To The Rooms Where It Happens: Climate Nexus has more perspective, headlines and links: “As Scotland’s last surviving patch of snow melts for just the eighth time in 300 years and big-name global leaders head home, COP26 negotiators are getting down to business. The mask-to-mask negotiations are key to hammering out the arcane and important details, but COVID-19 protocols and poor planning by organizers have sidelined negotiators from less wealthy nations most vulnerable to and least responsible for the climate crisis — including in negotiations over how to allocate the UN’s Green Climate Fund, which finances projects in developing countries hardest hit by climate change. “The deals are made very often outside of the [official negotiating] room,” longtime negotiator Yamide Dagnet of WRI told the AP. That limits the ability of negotiators from developing countries from fully participating because organizers dolled credentialed 39,509 people for a venue with a maximum capacity of 10,000 and internet connections are spotty. “In the hallway, you meet someone, and that’s where you agree on that comma versus that semicolon, and that’s what’s missing” in virtual meetings, Tosi Mpanu Mpanu, who chairs one of the two main UN negotiating groups, told the AP.” (Snow: The Guardian, Gizmodo; Negotiations: AP, Washington Post $; Green Climate Fund: Washington Post $; Credentials: New York Times $)

The Langfonne ice patch in Norway.
Glacier Archaeology Program, Innlandet County Council.

As Earth Warms, Old Mayhem and Secrets Emerge From the Ice. With any luck no lethal pathogens will rise up from the melting permafrost. The New York Times (paywall) has a fascinating story – here’s an excerpt: “…To date, the Glacier Archaeology Program has recovered about 3,500 artifacts, many preserved in extraordinary delicacy. Norway has more than half of the prehistoric and medieval finds from the ice globally. A freshly unfrozen alpine pass at Lendbreen — in use from about 600 to 1,700 years ago — yielded evidence of the tradespeople who traversed it: horseshoes, horse dung, a rudimentary ski and even a box filled with beeswax. Over the last decade, the relics melting out of the Alps have included the mummified remains of a Swiss couple missing since 1942 and the wreckage of an American military plane that crash-landed during turbulent weather in 1946. In Russia, scientists have regenerated reproductive tissue from unripe fruits of a narrow-leafed campion freeze-dried under the tundra for 32,000 years…”

7 Takeaways from COP26 Day 2. Restricting methane emissions worldwide would be another big step in the right direction. has context: “…Around 100 nations and parties have signed on to a global pledge to cut methane emissions by 30% of 2020 levels by 2030, the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced in Glasgow on Tuesday. Methane, which is the main component of natural gas, is an extremely potent greenhouse gas. Invisible and odorless, it has 80 times more warming power in the near-term than carbon dioxide. Von der Leyen said cutting the methane emissions “will immediately slow down climate change.” Helen Mountford, the vice president of climate and economics at World Resources Institute, an environmental research organization, said cutting methane emissions was essential to prevent the planet from warming beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius, a key threshold identified by scientists…”

A view shows a deforested plot of Brazilian Amazon rainforest near the Transamazonica national highway, in Apui, Amazonas state, Brazil, September 6, 2021.
REUTERS/Bruno Kelly

Will COP26 Deforestation Pledge Be Game-Changer or Broken Promise? Here’s a clip from an analysis at Thompson Reuters Foundation: “A new pledge by world leaders to halt deforestation by 2030 is likely to fail unless quickly backed by more funding, transparent monitoring and tough regulation of businesses and financiers linked to forest destruction, environmentalists warn. More than 100 global leaders late Monday pledged to halt and reverse deforestation and land degradation by the end of the decade, underpinned by $19 billion in public and private funds to invest in protecting and restoring forests. The commitment – made at the COP26 climate talks in Glasgow – included countries such as Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo which collectively account for the majority of the world’s tropical forests. While broadly welcomed, many conservationists noted that similar zero deforestation pledges had repeatedly been made and not met by both governments and businesses. Those include the 2014 New York Declaration on Forests (NYDF), the United Nations sustainability goals and targets set by global household brands...”

One Big Reason Why COP26 Actually Matters. Perspective from; here’s an excerpt: “…Similar to past meetings, COP26 is unlikely to yield any firm binding commitment along the lines needed to keep the 1.5°C target within reach. But it can help accelerate things in the right direction. Enough momentum to scrap coal would signal to investors that it’s time to drop the fossil fuel. A commitment to end deforestation would put pressure on companies reliant on illegal logging. Even just reiterating the 1.5°C target with any credible path to get there would signal that governments are going to go deeper and, just maybe, try everything. None of this is guaranteed, but the possibilities should make COP hard to ignore for anyone who cares about climate change.”

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How to Measure Success at COP26. The author at Grist reminds us to expect momentum, not magic: “…There’s a simple reason that experts think this gathering cannot force radical change onto the world: It operates via consensus. Any single member of the 199 countries meeting in Glasgow can derail the whole process by saying, “no.” The United Nations can’t strong-arm the world’s biggest polluters, China and the United States — or even tiny Lichtenstein — into reducing emissions. Negotiators also just don’t have that much latitude even with their own governments. They can’t strike an ambitious deal to, say, shut down the oil industry, and then come home and impose that decision on their country. If Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, abruptly stopped producing fossil fuels, it would likely collapse. That helps explain why the monarchy has set a date of 2060 to go “net zero,” a decade after the widely accepted goal. Each government is limited by its own economic reality and political processes...”

Fossil Fuel Financiers Announce New Climate Finance Group: Climate Nexus has headlines and links: “A new group of banks and financial firms that claims to be able to provide $100 trillion in private financing over the next thirty years to help countries hit climate targets launched at COP26 today. The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero is made up of more than 450 banks, asset managers, and insurers. However, the group includes major funders of fossil fuels, including J.P. Morgan Chase and BlackRock. “This announcement yet again ignores the biggest elephant in the room,’’ climate finance director Richard Brooks told the Financial Times. “We cannot keep under 1.5 degrees [warming] if financial institutions don’t stop funding coal, oil, and gas.” (FT $, Wall Street Journal $, Bloomberg $, Washington Post $)