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A strong upper-level system will be moving across the northern tier of the country over the next few days. This will help set off a few things. One: a severe threat over the next couple days with large hail and damaging winds. Two: deep Gulf moisture will be brought north, helping enhance rainfall and a flooding risk. Third: with the deepening surface low associated with this system we are expecting strong winds behind it. Let’s break it down:
An Enhanced Risk of severe weather has been placed over parts of North and South Dakota as well as far eastern Montana today as storms are expected to fire later this afternoon and into the evening hours. In these areas, very large hail and damaging winds can be expected, and a few tornadoes are possible as well. Those storms will spread eastward overnight, bringing with them a wind and hail threat. More severe storms will be possible southward into the Central Plains as well.
The system continues to move east on Tuesday, bringing a chance of severe weather from Minnesota southward into Missouri and Kansas. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat, but a few tornadoes are possible as well.
Some of the heaviest rain of the next five days will fall across portions of the upper Midwest and northern Rockies. Potentially 2-4″ of rain could fall, most of that over the next couple days.
Due to the amount of rain that could fall in a short amount of time, flooding will be possible in these areas today. Flooding is also possible along parts of the Gulf Coast of Florida in areas that have been hit hard with rainfall over the past couple days.
(MAP: Latest Watches, Warnings and Advisories)
Behind the system, winds will kick up. High Wind Watches are already in effect over parts of Montana and the Dakotas for Tuesday. Winds are likely to gust up to 60 mph at times during the day. Those strong winds will move east into Wednesday, with wind gusts of 20-30 mph or greater possible across Minnesota and Wisconsin.
(CHECK OUT YOUR FORECAST: wx.aerisweather.com)
– Meteorologist D.J. Kayser