Secondary Severe Weather Season- On The Way
Parts of the country have had a very active severe weather season, and in some ways, it continues to be active! It has slowed a bit, which is natural given that it’s now August. We will start to enter the secondary Severe weather season, which arguably, there has not been much of a break this year at all, so it’s hard to even call it the secondary season at this point.
The secondary severe weather season happens because the Jet Stream, which normally migrates into Southern Canada during the summer, starts to move back into the US, promoting the clash of airmasses and more forcing dynamics that promote severe thunderstorms. With each passing month, the focus areas will continue to shift further and further South, until it becomes busy again in the Southern Plains, and then ultimately the Deep South, during the late winter months.
Timing and Locations
Areas of the Midwest and the Plains have a secondary severe season during August and September, and then the threat shifts into the Central and Southern Plains for October, and then the Gulf Coast for November.
Usually, there is a bit of a mid-winter break, although, Severe weather has proven to be possible in any month, given some of the strange tornadoes we have even seen in the Midwest in December and January, due to some larger systems, and unprecedented warmth that migrates into the Northern latitudes. The anomaly events will likely continue to be more common in the years ahead with various weather patterns being disrupted as well.
Tornado and Lightning. Source: NOAA
Tornado Trends
Let’s break it down by month to look at the 25-year averages from 1999-2023 for average tornado counts. Along with these trends, it can be assumed that tornado activity has a correlation with damaging wind and hail activity as well, which would then create noticeable surges in this activity for more of these regions, according to the maps.
January- as you can see, the dominance is in the South for tornado volume.
February- still dominant in the South, but a slight expansion to other regions.
March- we start to see a dominant shift North, with increasing tornado volume everywhere.
April- continuing from March, and expanding to much of the Central plains.
May- peak Severe Weather season for the Central Plains, so this is arguably when numbers are highest for this region.
June- we see a pronounced shift North, as this is peak season for the Upper Midwest.
July- still dominant to the North, but the Jet Stream is usually into Southern Canada at this point which creates a slight decrease in the Northern Regions. Florida begins seeing higher numbers also, due to Tropical systems that cause tornadoes.
August- still reasonably active to the North, but you can begin to see overall numbers dropping there. Florida continues to see higher activity due to tropical systems that can cause tornadoes.
September- activity begins making a noticeable shift South. Florida sees much higher numbers due to anticipated tropical activity that causes tornadoes.
October- things make a noticeable shift further South, also quieting down overall.
November- this is a bit of a secondary season for the deep South, with activity remaining active.
December- continuing November trends, however, in recent years we have seen some dynamic systems with the onset of winter that have even brought tornadoes to the far Northern plains and areas like Minnesota- which is very rare!
These are just averages- and of course, there are anomalies to any situation that comes up, and all storms are different. Things can vary from year to year, but the one takeaway here is that severe weather activity can indeed surge again for many as we go into the fall. This year particularly, we have not had much of a break in the action, so it doesn’t seem like much has changed, but the inevitable fall uptick in activity seems quite likely as we go into the next couple of months.
Of course, there are also areas that just rarely see tornadoes, like the West, the Rockies, and parts of the Northeast. Although, for 2024 (so far not on these maps) the Northeast has had a really big year for tornadoes, and some of those were associated with ex-tropical system, Beryl.
It’s important to remain weather aware, stay tuned to the forecasts out there, and have weather apps and weather radios at your disposal for weather warnings.
-Meteorologist Bo Cole
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