Summer’s Return for the Midwest?
It has been a slow start for summer for one region in particular, the Midwest- as mentioned in another recent post. So far, cities like Minneapolis/St.Paul have only had 1 day at 90 degrees or above. Last year, they had a total of 33 days above 90 (about 16 up to this point in the year). Eau Claire in West Central Wisconsin has not seen a 90 degree reading yet either.
Last summer for the Midwest- they were plagued by hot temperatures and a lot of Canadian wildfire smoke. As of now, it looks like the start of August may start featuring a larger ridge in the mid-section of the country, which will bring a return of heat, and likely some wildfire smoke, on the backside of any fronts that move through. Anytime a storm front/cold front moves through, it tends to bring the smoke down to the surface.
Indications from both the 6-10 day outlook and 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center are that we will finally warm up, with possibly a strong of 90 degree days. Indications are also for near average to below average precipitation for the area. I could see some ‘ridge rider’ thunderstorms being common in this scenario. This is when we tend to see more explosive storm development on the Northern edge of any heat ridges.
6-10 Day Outlook
Similarly, the 8-14 day outlooks are not projecting much change, other than a slightly drier emphasis for parts of the region. But, much of the US looks to be hotter than average for this stretch of time.
8-14 Day Outlook
Although we may have passed, or very close to passing the statistical peak for heat- which usually is 3-4 weeks after the summer solstice in the Midwest, there still may be some heat to contend with for a little while, to make up for lost time. The abundance of rainfall has also quelled all drought concerns for the Midwest. We may have some time for things to settle down in the region for rainfall.
Wildfire Smoke
Unfortunately, with all of the persistent heat that has been predominantly in the Western Regions, there is an abundance of wildfire activity happening.Much of this smoke will finally move into regions that have not been as plagued this year, and one of those is the Midwest, and also the Northeast. Although, smoke usually goes in waves, based on the Jet steam pattern and windflow at the time. Currently, although impactful, it is not expected to be as bad for the Northern Regions as it was last year. You can see, where many fires are burning to the West, the air quality is poor.
Summer Finally Arriving for Some
Some may be saying, what’s the big deal it’s been plenty nice and warm. Well- it has, to an extent! But many places in the upper Midwest were already well on their way to a very warm year last year, with 16 days above 90 already, leading to a season ending total of 33 for some areas.
They may make up for some lost time next week as a massive heat ridge starts building across the midsection of the country. For those that have loved the modest Midwestern Summer, we may have to balance things out with some rather warm temperatures coming up.
These outlooks, although fairly reliable, have proven to evolve over time. Recently, it was suggested that we would have a fair amount of heat, and we did for a little while but that promptly was replaced by a few below average stretches on a number of occasions, given the lack of 90 degree days so far in the Midwest- particularly that states of Minnesota and Wisconsin. So, in theory, it should be warm for now and possibly into fall, but these outlooks can always change and evolve.
Fall Seasonal Outlook
As suggested in the other recent post, the fall conditions are expected to still trend a bit warmer and drier than average, so far anyways, which could even cause some drought conditions to re-emerge for areas that are not as saturated.
Could the Drought Expand Again in Some Areas?
Given the surplus of moisture that some areas have seen, especially the Upper Midwest, it seems unlikely, but some of the aeas that have had less rainfall focus and less moisture saturation, it is certainly possible we could see some drought conditions growing into the fall.
We could be facing a hot 2nd half of summer, and some drought conditions could expand. If anything, it will feel more like a typical summer, which some may like, and others may not like as much!
Let’s see how things evolve!
-Meteorologist Bo Cole
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Thanks for checking in!
Meteorologist Bo Cole
