Heavy Southwest Rain – Watching The Tropics – August 14, 2021

National Weather Forecast

A frontal boundary positioned from the Northeast to the central U.S. will produce showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong. The other story we’ll continue to track is Fred, which will move across the Florida Keys on Saturday.

Two areas of heavy rain are expected in the next few days. The first will be across portions of Florida in relation to Fred moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with 3-7” of rain possible. The other will be across portions of Arizona and New Mexico, where 1-3”+ of rain could fall leading to flash flood concerns.

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Tracking Fred And Seven

Fred continues to remain a disorganized system, sitting near the northern Cuba coast. Once Fred can finally get away from Cuba, we will likely see some strengthening occur and Fred will become a tropical storm once again. It is expected to pass near the Florida Keys Saturday, and eventually make landfall along the Florida Panhandle Monday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in place for the Florida Keys.

We are also tracking Tropical Depression Seven, out in the central tropical Atlantic, which is expected to become the next tropical storm of the season (Grace). It looks to move toward the Leeward Islands as we head into Saturday Night, then it’ll move across portions of the Greater Antilles through the rest of the weekend into early next week. Tropical Storm Watches are in place for portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.

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Asteroid Bennu has 1 in 1,750 chance of smashing into Earth, NASA says

More from c|net: “Data collected from a NASA spacecraft’s visit to the potentially hazardous asteroid Bennu reveals future generations will want to keep a close eye on the big space rock as it makes close passes by Earth in the 22nd century. Researchers used information from the Osiris-Rex mission that spent over two years orbiting, studying and even sampling Bennu to get a better idea of its future path through the inner solar system. They found the minuscule chance the 1,700-foot-wide (518 meter) boulder will impact our planet in the future is actually slightly higher than previously thought, but still nothing to lose sleep over. “I’m not any more concerned about Bennu than I was before,” Davide Farnocchia of NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (Cneos) told reporters on a call Wednesday. “The impact probability remains small.” That probability is about 1 in 1,750, or 0.06%, between now and the year 2300, and we can rule out any chance of impact between today and 2135. That’s the year Bennu will come closer to Earth than the moon in September.”

It’s official: July was Earth’s hottest month on record

More from NOAA: “July 2021 has earned the unenviable distinction as the world’s hottest month ever recorded, according to new global data released today by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. “In this case, first place is the worst place to be,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “July is typically the world’s warmest month of the year, but July 2021 outdid itself as the hottest July and month ever recorded. This new record adds to the disturbing and disruptive path that climate change has set for the globe.” Around the globe: the combined land and ocean-surface temperature was 1.67 degrees F (0.93 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average of 60.4 degrees F (15.8 degrees C), making it the hottest July since records began 142 years ago. It was 0.02 of a degree F (0.01 of a degree C) higher than the previous record set in July 2016, which was then tied in 2019 and 2020.”

At least 27 people dead from floods in northern Turkey

More from Axios: “At least 27 people have died and dozens more are presumed missing from severe flooding and mudslides in northern Turkey, AP reports. The big picture: Torrential rains in the Black Sea coastal provinces of Bartin, Kastamonu, Sinop and Samsun on Wednesday caused flooding and mudslides that destroyed homes and buildings — prompting more than 1,700 people to be evacuated across the region. Driving the news: Rescue crews recovered 10 bodies overnight. At least 4,500 personnel, 19 helicopters, and 24 boats are involved in the search and rescue operation, per AP. The majority of deaths are occurring in Kastamonu, where a stream burst its banks and flooded the town of Bozkurt.”

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

– D.J. Kayser