We’re watching a upper level low over the Four Corners that is helping to drive much of the weather over the next few days, with heavy snow in the mountains, severe storms in the Central Plains, and even more flooding threats as it helps drive moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward to interact with a warm front.
Numerous Severe Threats
Let’s jump right into the severe threat today. An Enhanced Risk of severe storms is present over parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas (in the orange shaded area), surrounded by a Slight Risk (in yellow). A Marginal Risk of severe storms then extends itself all the way to the Florida Panhandle. While large hail and damaging winds will be possible across the entire severe threat area, the best chance of large hail or even seeing a tornado is in that enhanced risk area.
On Friday, another pulse of storms are expected in a lot of the same areas as today. An Enhanced Risk of severe storms is located over southern Texas, with a Slight Risk from Texas into southern Louisiana. A second Slight Risk area is over parts of western and central Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. Over the south, the main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. Over Kansas, large hail and an isolated tornado are possible
On Saturday, our upper level low will slowly start to creep out into the Central Plains, and slowly the storms will follow it. A Slight Risk of severe weather has been placed from Kansas into Texas, and over toward the Mobile, AL area. Large hail will be possible from Kansas into Oklahoma. From Texas along the Gulf Coast, damaging winds will possible along with large hail.
On Sunday, we’ll watch the severe chance continue to move east across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Again, we will be looking at large hail and damaging winds.
Not only are we watching a severe threat the next few days along the northern Gulf Coast, but a flooding threat as well. Gulf moisture continues to surge northward, interacting with a warm front across the region. The result is days upon days of rain, and with totals of over a half a foot in numerous locations. And it’s just going to continue. I’m just going to post today’s area that could see flooding rains, as much of the same is expected through Saturday.
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the next few days across portions of the northern Gulf Coast due to the continuing heavy rain.
New Orleans, LA, has seen seven straight days of rain through Wednesday, totaling 6.59″ during that time period. There’s a good chance that the rainy streak will continue over the next four days as they continued to get hit with rain.
Mobile, AL, has seen five straight days of rain through Wednesday, with a whopping 10.41″ of rain – about 70% of that liquid falling on Sunday alone. The 7.28″ that fell Sunday counted as the fourth wettest April day on record for Mobile. It’s looking like they’ll see the rain continue for about another four days as well before a break hopefully works in!
Heavy snow has been falling in parts of the Rockies over the past 24 hours. Here are some of the snow totals so far – some locations picking up more than a foot of snow!
This was the view from Denver, CO, earlier this morning where some snow was making it to the ground! (Webcam image: CO Department of Public Health & Environment).
And we’re watching the potential of more heavy snow in parts of the Rockies over the next few days as that upper level low slowly meanders its way eastward. Some of the higher elevations could pick up over two feet of snow by the time it is done falling.
Meteorologist D.J. Kayser